This is a key point for a different discussion: job loss and effect on economies. Supposing writing software is almost all automated. Nobody is going to get the trillions currently spent on it. If just two companies, say Anthropic and OpenAI have agents that automate it, they’ll compete and drive the prices down to near the compute costs (or collude until others make systems that can compete...)
Now those trillions aren’t being spent on writing code. Where do they go? Anticipating how businesses will use their surplus as they pay less wages is probably something someone should be doing. But I don’t know of any economists taking seriously claims like AI doing all coding in a few years let alone a few months.
I’m afraid we’re going to get blindsided because economists aren’t taking the possibility of unprecedented rapid job loss seriously.
This is a key point for a different discussion: job loss and effect on economies. Supposing writing software is almost all automated. Nobody is going to get the trillions currently spent on it. If just two companies, say Anthropic and OpenAI have agents that automate it, they’ll compete and drive the prices down to near the compute costs (or collude until others make systems that can compete...)
Now those trillions aren’t being spent on writing code. Where do they go? Anticipating how businesses will use their surplus as they pay less wages is probably something someone should be doing. But I don’t know of any economists taking seriously claims like AI doing all coding in a few years let alone a few months.
I’m afraid we’re going to get blindsided because economists aren’t taking the possibility of unprecedented rapid job loss seriously.