Thanks for doing this! It’s looking like we may need major economic changes to keep up with job automation (assuming we don’t get an outright AGI takeover). So, getting started on thinking this stuff through may have immense benefit. Like the alignment problem, it’s embarassing as a species that we haven’t thought about this more when the train appears to be barreling down the tracks. So, kudos and keep it up!
Now, the critique: doing this analysis for only the richest country in the world seems obviously inadequate and not even a good starting point; something like the median country would be more useful. OTOH, I see why you’re doing this; I’m a US citizen and numbers are easier to get here.
So in sum, I think the bigger issue is the second one you mention: global tax reform that can actually capture the profits made from various AI companies and the much larger base of AI-enabled companies that don’t pay nearly as much for AI as they would for labor, but reap massive profits. They will often be “based” in whatever country gives them the lowest tax rates. So we have another thorny global coordination problem.
I was also going to mention not accounting for the tech changes this is accounting for. So I recommend you add that this is part 1 in the intro to head off that frustration among readers.
Thanks for doing this! It’s looking like we may need major economic changes to keep up with job automation (assuming we don’t get an outright AGI takeover). So, getting started on thinking this stuff through may have immense benefit. Like the alignment problem, it’s embarassing as a species that we haven’t thought about this more when the train appears to be barreling down the tracks. So, kudos and keep it up!
Now, the critique: doing this analysis for only the richest country in the world seems obviously inadequate and not even a good starting point; something like the median country would be more useful. OTOH, I see why you’re doing this; I’m a US citizen and numbers are easier to get here.
So in sum, I think the bigger issue is the second one you mention: global tax reform that can actually capture the profits made from various AI companies and the much larger base of AI-enabled companies that don’t pay nearly as much for AI as they would for labor, but reap massive profits. They will often be “based” in whatever country gives them the lowest tax rates. So we have another thorny global coordination problem.
I was also going to mention not accounting for the tech changes this is accounting for. So I recommend you add that this is part 1 in the intro to head off that frustration among readers.