If this institution is totally honest, and extremely accurate in making predictions, so that obeying the laws it enforces is like one-boxing in Newcomb’s problem, and somehow an institution with this predictive power has no better option than imprisonment, then yes I would be OK with it.
Please see the edit I just added to the post; it seems like my wording wasn’t precise enough. I had in mind statistical treatment of large groups, not prediction of behavior on an individual basis (which I assume is the point of your analogy with Newcomb’s problem).
The topic of preemptive imprisonment was not under discussion, so it seems strange to consider it an error not to apply a reversal test to it.
I agree that it’s not critical to the main point of the post, but I would say that it’s a question that deserves at least a passing mention in any discussion of a consequentialist model of blame, even a tangential one.
If this institution is totally honest, and extremely accurate in making predictions, so that obeying the laws it enforces is like one-boxing in Newcomb’s problem, and somehow an institution with this predictive power has no better option than imprisonment, then yes I would be OK with it.
Please see the edit I just added to the post; it seems like my wording wasn’t precise enough. I had in mind statistical treatment of large groups, not prediction of behavior on an individual basis (which I assume is the point of your analogy with Newcomb’s problem).
I would also be ok with this… however by your own definition it would never happen in practice, except for extreme cases like cults or a rage virus that only infects redheads.
How much of a statistical correlation would you require? Anything over 50%? 90%? 99%? I’d still have a problem with this. “It is better [one hundred] guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer.”—Ben Franklin
Sorry, not arguing from authority, the quote is a declaration of my values (or maybe just a heuristic :-), I just wanted to attribute it accurately.
My problem may just be lack of imagination. How could this work in reality? If we are talking about groups that are statistically more likely to commit crimes, we already have those. How is what is proposed above different from imprisoning these groups? Is it just a matter of doing a cost-benefit analysis?
Please see the edit I just added to the post; it seems like my wording wasn’t precise enough. I had in mind statistical treatment of large groups, not prediction of behavior on an individual basis (which I assume is the point of your analogy with Newcomb’s problem).
I agree that it’s not critical to the main point of the post, but I would say that it’s a question that deserves at least a passing mention in any discussion of a consequentialist model of blame, even a tangential one.
I would also be ok with this… however by your own definition it would never happen in practice, except for extreme cases like cults or a rage virus that only infects redheads.
How much of a statistical correlation would you require? Anything over 50%? 90%? 99%? I’d still have a problem with this. “It is better [one hundred] guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer.”—Ben Franklin
An article by SteveLandsburg on a similar quote.
And a historical overview of related quotes.
Enough to justify imprisoning everyone. It depends on how long they’d stay in jail, the magnitude of the crime, etc.
I really don’t care what Ben Franklin thinks.
Sorry, not arguing from authority, the quote is a declaration of my values (or maybe just a heuristic :-), I just wanted to attribute it accurately.
My problem may just be lack of imagination. How could this work in reality? If we are talking about groups that are statistically more likely to commit crimes, we already have those. How is what is proposed above different from imprisoning these groups? Is it just a matter of doing a cost-benefit analysis?
It’s not different. Vladmir is arguing that if you agree with the article, you should also support preemptive imprisonment.