You’re kind of missing the point here. I probably should have clarified my position more
The reason I want people to trust the justice system is so that people wil not be inclined to commit crimes, because it would then more likely (from their point of view) that, if they did, they would get caught. I suppose there is the issue of precedent to worry about, but the ultimate purpose of the justice system, from the consequentialist viewpoint, is to deter crimes (by either the offender it is dealing with or potential others), not to punish criminals. As the offender is, by assumption, unlikely to reoffend, the everyone else’s criminal behaviors are the main factor here, and these are minimised through the justice system’s reputation. (I also should have added the assumption that attempts to convince people of the truth have failed). By prosecuting X you are acheiving this purpose. The Least Convenient Possible World is the one where there’s not a third way, or additional factor (I hadn’t thought of) that lets you get out of this.
Rationality is not about maximising the accuracy of your beliefs, nor the accuracy of others. It is about winning!
EDIT: Grammer
EDIT: The point is, if you would punish a guilty person for a stabler society, you ought to to the same to an innocent person, for the some benefit.
The point is, if you would punish a guilty person for a stabler society, you ought to to the same to an innocent person, for the some benefit.
This ignores the causal relationships. How is punishing the innocent supposed to create a stabler society? Because, in your scenario, it’s just this once and no-one will ever know. But it’s never just this once, and people (the judge, X, and Y at least) will know. As one might observe from a glance at the news from time to time. All you’re doing is saying, “But what if it really was just this once and no-one would ever know?” To which the answer is, “How will you know?” To which the LCPW replies “But what if you did know?”, engulfing the objection and Borgifying it into an extra hypothesis of your own.
You might as well jump straight to your desired conclusion and say “But what if it really was Good, not Bad?” and you are no longer talking about anything in reality. Reality itself is the Least Convenient Possible World.
Possibly I used it out of context, What I mean is that utility (less crime)> utility(society has inaccurate view of justice system) when the latter has few other consequences, and rationaliy is about maximising utility. Also, in the Least Convenient World, overall this trial will not affect any others, hence negating the point about the accuracy of the justice system. Here knowledge is not an end, it is a means to an end.
You’re kind of missing the point here. I probably should have clarified my position more The reason I want people to trust the justice system is so that people wil not be inclined to commit crimes, because it would then more likely (from their point of view) that, if they did, they would get caught. I suppose there is the issue of precedent to worry about, but the ultimate purpose of the justice system, from the consequentialist viewpoint, is to deter crimes (by either the offender it is dealing with or potential others), not to punish criminals. As the offender is, by assumption, unlikely to reoffend, the everyone else’s criminal behaviors are the main factor here, and these are minimised through the justice system’s reputation. (I also should have added the assumption that attempts to convince people of the truth have failed). By prosecuting X you are acheiving this purpose. The Least Convenient Possible World is the one where there’s not a third way, or additional factor (I hadn’t thought of) that lets you get out of this.
Rationality is not about maximising the accuracy of your beliefs, nor the accuracy of others. It is about winning!
EDIT: Grammer EDIT: The point is, if you would punish a guilty person for a stabler society, you ought to to the same to an innocent person, for the some benefit.
This ignores the causal relationships. How is punishing the innocent supposed to create a stabler society? Because, in your scenario, it’s just this once and no-one will ever know. But it’s never just this once, and people (the judge, X, and Y at least) will know. As one might observe from a glance at the news from time to time. All you’re doing is saying, “But what if it really was just this once and no-one would ever know?” To which the answer is, “How will you know?” To which the LCPW replies “But what if you did know?”, engulfing the objection and Borgifying it into an extra hypothesis of your own.
You might as well jump straight to your desired conclusion and say “But what if it really was Good, not Bad?” and you are no longer talking about anything in reality. Reality itself is the Least Convenient Possible World.
I don’t think you understand what “rationality is about winning” means. It is explained here, here, and here.
Possibly I used it out of context, What I mean is that utility (less crime)> utility(society has inaccurate view of justice system) when the latter has few other consequences, and rationaliy is about maximising utility. Also, in the Least Convenient World, overall this trial will not affect any others, hence negating the point about the accuracy of the justice system. Here knowledge is not an end, it is a means to an end.
See my reply to Roxolan.