I’m going to nominate manifold markets and I encourage them to apply. Not only is it a better metaculus, it’s metaculus for money that can be redeemed for charity. Then there’s the cherry on top that the most competent at prediction markets are the people with the most money to donate, which I expect in practice to be some kind of very weak correlate to “the people most likely to be effective givers/thinkers”.
I’m going to nominate manifold markets and I encourage them to apply. Not only is it a better metaculus, it’s metaculus for money that can be redeemed for charity. Then there’s the cherry on top that the most competent at prediction markets are the people with the most money to donate, which I expect in practice to be some kind of very weak correlate to “the people most likely to be effective givers/thinkers”.