I estimated the odds, I did not say I would take a bet. There is a large difference.
risky behavior does not need to (anti)correlate with the ability to keep someone else’s secrets.
That said, I tend to agree that there are plenty of other people on this forum better qualified to evaluate if an idea is dangerous. However, the odds (here it is, again) of Eitan’s idea needing high qualifications to evaluate are tiny.
I estimated the odds, I did not say I would take a bet. There is a large difference.
I don’t think there should be a difference. In practice the friction of actually making the bet is generally too high to bother, but in principle if you’re giving odds you should be willing to make a small bet at (slightly better than) those odds.
A few notes:
I estimated the odds, I did not say I would take a bet. There is a large difference.
risky behavior does not need to (anti)correlate with the ability to keep someone else’s secrets.
That said, I tend to agree that there are plenty of other people on this forum better qualified to evaluate if an idea is dangerous. However, the odds (here it is, again) of Eitan’s idea needing high qualifications to evaluate are tiny.
I don’t think there should be a difference. In practice the friction of actually making the bet is generally too high to bother, but in principle if you’re giving odds you should be willing to make a small bet at (slightly better than) those odds.