Given the way real-world humans behave, incentives work as a blunt instrument. You can’t incentivize only rational decisions without incentivizing irrational decisions that are somewhat similar in form. Incentivizing the 90% chance of saving 500 over the 100% chance of saving 400 would make the right choice more likely in that specific situation, but would also incentivize wrong choices (for instance, taking a 10% chance of 500 people dying in order to implement something that you are really certain would have good effects, when that certainty is unwarranted). You can’t change human psychology to make the incentive work only on rational choices, so we’re overall better off without the incentive.
Given the way real-world humans behave, incentives work as a blunt instrument. You can’t incentivize only rational decisions without incentivizing irrational decisions that are somewhat similar in form. Incentivizing the 90% chance of saving 500 over the 100% chance of saving 400 would make the right choice more likely in that specific situation, but would also incentivize wrong choices (for instance, taking a 10% chance of 500 people dying in order to implement something that you are really certain would have good effects, when that certainty is unwarranted). You can’t change human psychology to make the incentive work only on rational choices, so we’re overall better off without the incentive.