In the first case, the meme “if you didn’t do something, it only means it wasn’t really important for you” was presented to me by multiple people as an absolute truth that only a person in deep denial could not accept as self-evident.
Mmm. Agreed that the “only” in this sentence makes it unjustifiably strong, but I still think revealed preferences has a lot going for it, and the defenses I’ve seen of it is “this is the best of bad options” rather than “this is a good option.”
The meme is dangerous because it is similar to something true, which is why one gets a lot of what seems to be an evidence for the meme. Yes, humans often do express desires which are not their true desires, or at least not the strongest ones. It is useful to know that, about others and about yourself. I am absolutely not denying this.
The danger is in assuming that all differences between the expressed preferences and achieved results can be explained by this kind of hypocrisy; that everything that happened to me reflects the desires of a hidden homunculus in my head, and that this homunculus is my true self, and I am just too hypocritical to admit it. (Taken ad absurdum, if I slip on a sidewalk and break my arm, it could also be explained that my “true wish” was to break my arm, because .) While in reality other factors influence the result too:
Luck—let’s assume that I want something, and I make a plan to achieve it. Because of my uncertaintly and external factors, the plan has a chance to succeed and a chance to fail. So in one Everett branch my plan succeeds, which means that I “truly wanted” the thing; in another Everett branch my plan fails, which means that I was only hypocritical about the thing a never “truly wanted” it.
Internal conflict—so one part of me wants to enjoy some habit with harmful side-effects, other part of me wants to get rid of the habit. Which of these parts is supposed to be my “true self”? According to the folk wisdom it would be the pro-habit part, because it is less rational and because it usually wins. But does that mean that the other part is completely fake, or is it also a part of myself? Maybe in one Everett branch the pro-habit part wins, and in another Everett branch someone introduces me to e.g. Beeminder, which helps me to overcome the habit. Does it mean that in the former branch I “truly wanted” to keep the habit, while in the latter I “truly wanted” to overcome it?
In other words, this meme pretends to have even higher predictive power by redefining its predictions to match the observed outcome. If someone talks for ten years about a desire to do something, does many partial steps towards the goal but never achieves it, it is a proof that he never really wanted it; but if on the eleventh year he finally succeeds, suddenly it becomes a proof that he always wanted it, which made him work diligently for those eleven years. (Alternatively, it could be explained that in the very last moment his “true wish” switched from not wanting it to wanting it.)
The harm of the meme is that when you find yourself in an internal conflict and try to prepare a strategy to overcome your impulses and reach a better outcome, it tells you to stop planning, because either you “truly want” to do it, and then you don’t need a strategy, or you don’t “truly want” to do it, in which case the strategy will not help. (So you stop planning, you most likely fail, and then you rationalize it into evidence that you didn’t “truly want” the thing. At the moment you already have some “ugh fields” associated with the topic, which makes the explanation feel more likely.)
The danger is in assuming that all differences between the expressed preferences and achieved results can be explained by this kind of hypocrisy; that everything that happened to me reflects the desires of a hidden homunculus in my head, and that this homunculus is my true self, and I am just too hypocritical to admit it.
Agreed; this is what I mean when I object to the ‘only.’
Mmm. Agreed that the “only” in this sentence makes it unjustifiably strong, but I still think revealed preferences has a lot going for it, and the defenses I’ve seen of it is “this is the best of bad options” rather than “this is a good option.”
The meme is dangerous because it is similar to something true, which is why one gets a lot of what seems to be an evidence for the meme. Yes, humans often do express desires which are not their true desires, or at least not the strongest ones. It is useful to know that, about others and about yourself. I am absolutely not denying this.
The danger is in assuming that all differences between the expressed preferences and achieved results can be explained by this kind of hypocrisy; that everything that happened to me reflects the desires of a hidden homunculus in my head, and that this homunculus is my true self, and I am just too hypocritical to admit it. (Taken ad absurdum, if I slip on a sidewalk and break my arm, it could also be explained that my “true wish” was to break my arm, because .) While in reality other factors influence the result too:
Luck—let’s assume that I want something, and I make a plan to achieve it. Because of my uncertaintly and external factors, the plan has a chance to succeed and a chance to fail. So in one Everett branch my plan succeeds, which means that I “truly wanted” the thing; in another Everett branch my plan fails, which means that I was only hypocritical about the thing a never “truly wanted” it.
Internal conflict—so one part of me wants to enjoy some habit with harmful side-effects, other part of me wants to get rid of the habit. Which of these parts is supposed to be my “true self”? According to the folk wisdom it would be the pro-habit part, because it is less rational and because it usually wins. But does that mean that the other part is completely fake, or is it also a part of myself? Maybe in one Everett branch the pro-habit part wins, and in another Everett branch someone introduces me to e.g. Beeminder, which helps me to overcome the habit. Does it mean that in the former branch I “truly wanted” to keep the habit, while in the latter I “truly wanted” to overcome it?
In other words, this meme pretends to have even higher predictive power by redefining its predictions to match the observed outcome. If someone talks for ten years about a desire to do something, does many partial steps towards the goal but never achieves it, it is a proof that he never really wanted it; but if on the eleventh year he finally succeeds, suddenly it becomes a proof that he always wanted it, which made him work diligently for those eleven years. (Alternatively, it could be explained that in the very last moment his “true wish” switched from not wanting it to wanting it.)
The harm of the meme is that when you find yourself in an internal conflict and try to prepare a strategy to overcome your impulses and reach a better outcome, it tells you to stop planning, because either you “truly want” to do it, and then you don’t need a strategy, or you don’t “truly want” to do it, in which case the strategy will not help. (So you stop planning, you most likely fail, and then you rationalize it into evidence that you didn’t “truly want” the thing. At the moment you already have some “ugh fields” associated with the topic, which makes the explanation feel more likely.)
Agreed; this is what I mean when I object to the ‘only.’