If they were independent … But they’re really not.
I agree. That’s why calculating the “combined” forecast is hard—you need to estimate the degree of co-dependency. But as long as the forecasts are not exactly the same, each new one gets you a (metaphorical) bit of information and your posterior probability should creep up from 80%.
I agree. That’s why calculating the “combined” forecast is hard—you need to estimate the degree of co-dependency. But as long as the forecasts are not exactly the same, each new one gets you a (metaphorical) bit of information and your posterior probability should creep up from 80%.