I don’t know what you mean by “conservative about impact”
I mean predicting modest impact for reasons futurist maybe should predict modest impacts (like “existential catastrophes never happened before” or “novel technologies always plateau” or whole cluster of similar heuristics in opposition to “building safety buffer”).
It sounds like you’re saying “being rigorous and circumspect in your predictions will tend to yield probabilities much less than 10%”?
Not necessary “rigorous”—I’m not saying such thinking is definitely correct. I just can’t visualize thought process that arrives at 50% before correction, then applies conservative adjustment, because it’s all crazy, still gets 10% and proceeds to “then it’s fine”. So if survey respondents have higher probabilities and no complicated plan, then I don’t actually believe that opposite-of-engineering-conservatism mindset applies to them. Yes, maybe you mostly said things about not being decision-maker, but then what’s the point of that quote about bridges?
I mean predicting modest impact for reasons futurist maybe should predict modest impacts (like “existential catastrophes never happened before” or “novel technologies always plateau” or whole cluster of similar heuristics in opposition to “building safety buffer”).
Not necessary “rigorous”—I’m not saying such thinking is definitely correct. I just can’t visualize thought process that arrives at 50% before correction, then applies conservative adjustment, because it’s all crazy, still gets 10% and proceeds to “then it’s fine”. So if survey respondents have higher probabilities and no complicated plan, then I don’t actually believe that opposite-of-engineering-conservatism mindset applies to them. Yes, maybe you mostly said things about not being decision-maker, but then what’s the point of that quote about bridges?