My point was that, for significant potential payouts, unstated factors will dominate the decision. These impact one’s intuition, and lead to a false diagnosis of “irrational”.
It’s pretty darned rational to avoid things that sound like scams, unless you have the energy and knowledge to know the difference. If someone’s offering me $lots out of the blue, it’s probably a trick.
In addition, there are declining marginal utility and second-order effects (like how it impacts your future reputation and self image) that are very hard to model, and get included in our instincts—rational but illegible.
If something is evolutionarily selected but is implemented as a reflex I have a icky feeling calling such calculations “rational”.
I guess for real situations a certain amount of “fighting the actual” is pretty much always relevant. Just because you have recognised and formulated the problem one way doesn’t mean you have construed it correctly.
My point was that, for significant potential payouts, unstated factors will dominate the decision. These impact one’s intuition, and lead to a false diagnosis of “irrational”.
It’s pretty darned rational to avoid things that sound like scams, unless you have the energy and knowledge to know the difference. If someone’s offering me $lots out of the blue, it’s probably a trick.
In addition, there are declining marginal utility and second-order effects (like how it impacts your future reputation and self image) that are very hard to model, and get included in our instincts—rational but illegible.
If something is evolutionarily selected but is implemented as a reflex I have a icky feeling calling such calculations “rational”.
I guess for real situations a certain amount of “fighting the actual” is pretty much always relevant. Just because you have recognised and formulated the problem one way doesn’t mean you have construed it correctly.