I’m not sure what you are arguing here. I think there’s a large but vague concept of societal/civilization/technological collapse that people have in mind; something involving a dramatic reduction in living standards, technological regression, more simplified society, civil wars, etc… There’s also a bunch of partial examples, the older ones in that link, and more recent ones like China in the 1930s, Somalia more recently, Japan and Germany at the end of WW2, and a few others.
I’m pointing out that some common ideas about the features of these collapse seem to be wrong.
Now, if you want to give the idea a more thorough analysis, please do so! If you’re saying the concept is unclear, I agree. If you say it covers examples that don’t belong in the same category, then separate them. If you’re arguing that actually civilizations don’t/won’t collapse the way they used to—then that’s a view I have partial sympathy with, and would love to see proved or disproved.
I’m arguing that you’re thinking about fiction plots and, moreover, doing so in a fuzzy and not terribly coherent way. People do have a vague concept of a civilization collapse, but they also have vague concepts of aliens in flying saucers abducting humans and livestock.
None of your recent examples is called a collapse of a civilization and they do not match your “vague concept” anyway.
I’m pointing out that some common ideas about the features of these collapse seem to be wrong.
You’re vaguely waving your hand in the direction of a certain genre of fiction and declare that those people got it wrong. That seems silly on its face to me. Genre tropes are not “correct” or “wrong”.
If you are critiquing real analyses of potential aftermath scenarios, please link to them.
to give the idea a more thorough analysis
I don’t see any idea other than that you find dystopian tropes, ahem, unrealistic.
You could talk, instead, about much more specific scenarios. For example, defeat in a war (Germany, Japan). Or failure of the political structures (USSR). Or inability to maintain any sort of a centralized control (Somalia). They do not fit your “vague concept”, but they have a big advantage of having actually happened.
I’m not sure what you are arguing here. I think there’s a large but vague concept of societal/civilization/technological collapse that people have in mind; something involving a dramatic reduction in living standards, technological regression, more simplified society, civil wars, etc… There’s also a bunch of partial examples, the older ones in that link, and more recent ones like China in the 1930s, Somalia more recently, Japan and Germany at the end of WW2, and a few others.
I’m pointing out that some common ideas about the features of these collapse seem to be wrong.
Now, if you want to give the idea a more thorough analysis, please do so! If you’re saying the concept is unclear, I agree. If you say it covers examples that don’t belong in the same category, then separate them. If you’re arguing that actually civilizations don’t/won’t collapse the way they used to—then that’s a view I have partial sympathy with, and would love to see proved or disproved.
Go ahead and un-wave my hand at this answer.
I’m arguing that you’re thinking about fiction plots and, moreover, doing so in a fuzzy and not terribly coherent way. People do have a vague concept of a civilization collapse, but they also have vague concepts of aliens in flying saucers abducting humans and livestock.
None of your recent examples is called a collapse of a civilization and they do not match your “vague concept” anyway.
You’re vaguely waving your hand in the direction of a certain genre of fiction and declare that those people got it wrong. That seems silly on its face to me. Genre tropes are not “correct” or “wrong”.
If you are critiquing real analyses of potential aftermath scenarios, please link to them.
I don’t see any idea other than that you find dystopian tropes, ahem, unrealistic.
You could talk, instead, about much more specific scenarios. For example, defeat in a war (Germany, Japan). Or failure of the political structures (USSR). Or inability to maintain any sort of a centralized control (Somalia). They do not fit your “vague concept”, but they have a big advantage of having actually happened.