But OK. You say we must consider probabilities, or this will happen. Well, suppose that if I do something it will happen. I could notice that, criticize it, and thus avoid it.
Yes, but the Bayesian avoids having this step. For any step you can construct a “criticism” that will duplicate what the Bayesian will do. This is connected to a number of issues, including the fact that what constitutes valid criticism in a Popperian framework is far from clear.
But in your ice cream example I don’t see the probabilities. It’s just preferences for different ice creams, and an explanation of how you get a loop.
Ice cream is an analogy. It might not be a great one since it is connected to preferences (which sometimes gets confused with Bayesianism). The analogy isn’t a great one. It might make more sense to just go read Cox’s theorem and translate to yourself what the assumptions mean about an approach.
what constitutes valid criticism in a Popperian framework is far from clear.
Anything which is not itself criticized.
Ice cream is an analogy.
Could you pick any real world example you like, where the probabilities needed to avoid dutch book aren’t obvious, and point them out? To help concretize the idea for me.
Could you pick any real world example you like, where the probabilities needed to avoid dutch book aren’t obvious, and point them out
Well, I’m not sure, in that I’m not convinced that Dutch Booking really does occur much in real life other than in the obvious contexts. But there are a lot of contexts it does occur in. For example, a fair number of complicated stock maneuvers can be thought of essentially as attempts to dutch book other players in the stock market.
I didn’t say that (I’m not endoself).
Yes, but the Bayesian avoids having this step. For any step you can construct a “criticism” that will duplicate what the Bayesian will do. This is connected to a number of issues, including the fact that what constitutes valid criticism in a Popperian framework is far from clear.
Ice cream is an analogy. It might not be a great one since it is connected to preferences (which sometimes gets confused with Bayesianism). The analogy isn’t a great one. It might make more sense to just go read Cox’s theorem and translate to yourself what the assumptions mean about an approach.
OK, my bad. So many people. I lose track.
Anything which is not itself criticized.
Could you pick any real world example you like, where the probabilities needed to avoid dutch book aren’t obvious, and point them out? To help concretize the idea for me.
Well, I’m not sure, in that I’m not convinced that Dutch Booking really does occur much in real life other than in the obvious contexts. But there are a lot of contexts it does occur in. For example, a fair number of complicated stock maneuvers can be thought of essentially as attempts to dutch book other players in the stock market.
Koth already had an amusing response to that.
Someone here told me it does. Maybe you can go argue with him for me ;-)
I agree.