So we have infinitely many theories, infinitely many of which are dead wrong, and only one of which is true, and we just use the shortest one and hope? And that’s supposed to be a good idea?
You usually weight them by their simplicity, if you want a probabalistic forecast. This is Occam’s razor. Picking the shortest one is not an unreasonable way to get a specific prediction.
Ockham’s razor principle is well supported theoretically and experimentally, and there is no other similarly general and powerful principle which could replace or augment it. Ockham’s razor principle has been proven to be invaluable for understanding our world. Indeed, it not only seems a necessary but also sufficient founding principle of science. Until other necessary or sufficient principles are found, it is prudent to accept Ockham’s razor as the foundation of inductive reasoning. So far, all attempts to discredit the universal role of Ockham’s razor have failed.
So we have infinitely many theories, infinitely many of which are dead wrong, and only one of which is true, and we just use the shortest one and hope? And that’s supposed to be a good idea?
You usually weight them by their simplicity, if you want a probabalistic forecast. This is Occam’s razor. Picking the shortest one is not an unreasonable way to get a specific prediction.
Here is Hutter on how good an idea it is: