If you’re wrong in an unknown way, then it could just as well be 1% or 99%.
You might try to claim this averages to 50%. But theories don’t have uniform probability. There are more possible mistakes than truths. Almost all theories are mistaken. So when the probability is unknown, we have every reason to think it’s a mistake (if we’re just going to guess; we could of course use Popper’s epistemology instead which handles all this stuff), and there’s no justification for the theory. Right?
Your comments about error bars are subject to regresses (what is the probability you are right about that method? about the maximum entropy estimate? etc)
You don’t seem to be thinking with the concept of an probability distribution, or an average of one. You say “If you’re wrong in an unknown way, then it could just as well be 1% or 99%” as if it spells doom for any attempt to quantify probabilities. When really all it is is a symmetry property for a probability distribution.
I guess I shouldn’t be expected to give you a class in probability over the internet when you are already convinced it’s all wrong. But again, I think you should read a textbook on this stuff, or take a class.
If that’s what you’re using “the regress” to mean, sure, sign me up. But this has even less bearing than usual on whether uncertainty can be represented by probability, unless you are making the (unlikely and terrible) argument that nothing can be represented by anything.
If you’re wrong in an unknown way, then it could just as well be 1% or 99%.
You might try to claim this averages to 50%. But theories don’t have uniform probability. There are more possible mistakes than truths. Almost all theories are mistaken. So when the probability is unknown, we have every reason to think it’s a mistake (if we’re just going to guess; we could of course use Popper’s epistemology instead which handles all this stuff), and there’s no justification for the theory. Right?
Your comments about error bars are subject to regresses (what is the probability you are right about that method? about the maximum entropy estimate? etc)
You don’t seem to be thinking with the concept of an probability distribution, or an average of one. You say “If you’re wrong in an unknown way, then it could just as well be 1% or 99%” as if it spells doom for any attempt to quantify probabilities. When really all it is is a symmetry property for a probability distribution.
I guess I shouldn’t be expected to give you a class in probability over the internet when you are already convinced it’s all wrong. But again, I think you should read a textbook on this stuff, or take a class.
Are you aware that Yudkowsky doesn’t dispute the regress? He has an article on it.
http://lesswrong.com/lw/s0/where_recursive_justification_hits_bottom/
If that’s what you’re using “the regress” to mean, sure, sign me up. But this has even less bearing than usual on whether uncertainty can be represented by probability, unless you are making the (unlikely and terrible) argument that nothing can be represented by anything.