Earlier, you wrote about a change to your AGI timelines. What about p(doom)? It seems that in recent months there have been reasons for both optimism and pessimism.
I haven’t tried to calculate it recently. I still feel rather pessimistic for all the usual reasons. This paper from OpenAI was a positive update; Vance’s strong anti-AI-safety stance was a negative update. There have been various other updates besides.
Earlier, you wrote about a change to your AGI timelines.
What about p(doom)? It seems that in recent months there have been reasons for both optimism and pessimism.
I haven’t tried to calculate it recently. I still feel rather pessimistic for all the usual reasons. This paper from OpenAI was a positive update; Vance’s strong anti-AI-safety stance was a negative update. There have been various other updates besides.