This is a very interesting post that seems to be a clean example of a really important problem. If it’s true, I expect it will be an important building block in my model of the world.
However, I feel confused about it. For example, the participants had limited tokens and the ignorance prior was set before they traded, which appears to have induced underconfidence by default, and it’s not clear to me whether this entire effect is explained by that. Also the blue diamonds aren’t actually a great predictor of the blue circles and I don’t know why that would happen.
So I’m nominating this for review. If people review it in detail and find it’s valid, then I think it’s very important, but they might not, and that’s also valuable work.
I.… had totally forgotten what the actual content of this post was (I looked at it while pondering things to nominate, vaguely remember some anecdote that led up to ‘and therefore, unknown knowns’ exist, and thinking ’well, it might be important that unknown knowns exist, but I haven’t used that in the past year so probably shouldn’t nominate it.)
But, yeah, the meat of this post seems incredibly important-if-true.
This is a very interesting post that seems to be a clean example of a really important problem. If it’s true, I expect it will be an important building block in my model of the world.
However, I feel confused about it. For example, the participants had limited tokens and the ignorance prior was set before they traded, which appears to have induced underconfidence by default, and it’s not clear to me whether this entire effect is explained by that. Also the blue diamonds aren’t actually a great predictor of the blue circles and I don’t know why that would happen.
So I’m nominating this for review. If people review it in detail and find it’s valid, then I think it’s very important, but they might not, and that’s also valuable work.
I.… had totally forgotten what the actual content of this post was (I looked at it while pondering things to nominate, vaguely remember some anecdote that led up to ‘and therefore, unknown knowns’ exist, and thinking ’well, it might be important that unknown knowns exist, but I haven’t used that in the past year so probably shouldn’t nominate it.)
But, yeah, the meat of this post seems incredibly important-if-true.