I think a little more goes into it with poker, at least with Texas Hold’em. The odds change every time a new card is laid down. The player who goes all-in before the flop might actually have a pair of Aces, but another player could still win with a flush once all the cards are down.
I’m not sure what your underlying point here is—I might not be disagreeing with you. One lesson I take from poker is that there is little cost to folding when the stakes are high, but a very large cost to betting and being wrong. It is safer to sit and watch for a while and wait for a hand you have great confidence in before challenging the “all-in” player.
Similarly, there seems to be greater social down-sides to believing something that turns out to be false than to be skeptical of something that turns out to be true.
The central point I’m making is that people often know that the kid with a backwards baseball cap and sunglasses is likely to be bluffing, even though they don’t know that they know it, and thus it’s an example of an unknown known.
It is true that the cards change every hand, and so the kid may not be bluffing, but the probabilities don’t change (for a given context), so the kid is just as likely to be bluffing each time (for a given context). Eg. on a 964 flop, if the kid is the preflop raiser, he could have AA, but on that flop he’s likely to be bluffing, say, 80% of the time.
I think a little more goes into it with poker, at least with Texas Hold’em. The odds change every time a new card is laid down. The player who goes all-in before the flop might actually have a pair of Aces, but another player could still win with a flush once all the cards are down.
I’m not sure what your underlying point here is—I might not be disagreeing with you. One lesson I take from poker is that there is little cost to folding when the stakes are high, but a very large cost to betting and being wrong. It is safer to sit and watch for a while and wait for a hand you have great confidence in before challenging the “all-in” player.
Similarly, there seems to be greater social down-sides to believing something that turns out to be false than to be skeptical of something that turns out to be true.
The central point I’m making is that people often know that the kid with a backwards baseball cap and sunglasses is likely to be bluffing, even though they don’t know that they know it, and thus it’s an example of an unknown known.
It is true that the cards change every hand, and so the kid may not be bluffing, but the probabilities don’t change (for a given context), so the kid is just as likely to be bluffing each time (for a given context). Eg. on a 964 flop, if the kid is the preflop raiser, he could have AA, but on that flop he’s likely to be bluffing, say, 80% of the time.