I think this is mixing up colloquial “know nothing” and literal “know nothing”. It’s impossible to identify a thing about which one knows nothing, as that identification is something about the thing. It can be wrong, and it can be very imprecise, but it’s not nothing.
50⁄50 are the odds of A when we know nothing about A.
No. 50⁄50 is a reasonable universal prior, but that’s both very theoretical and deeply unclear how to categorize quantum waveforms into things over which a probability is even applicable. In most real cases, 50⁄50 are the odds to start with when all you know is that it’s common enough to come to your attention, and that it “feels” balanced whether or not it’ll happen.
In other words, “undefined and inapplicable” is the probability for things you know nothing about. Almost all things you can apply probability to, you know SOMETHING about.
You add another layer of mixing literal and figurative “don’t know anything” to the term “singularity”. Also, don’t forget to multiply by the probability that a singularity-on-relevant-factors might not have happened for the thing you’re predicting.
I think this is mixing up colloquial “know nothing” and literal “know nothing”. It’s impossible to identify a thing about which one knows nothing, as that identification is something about the thing. It can be wrong, and it can be very imprecise, but it’s not nothing.
No. 50⁄50 is a reasonable universal prior, but that’s both very theoretical and deeply unclear how to categorize quantum waveforms into things over which a probability is even applicable. In most real cases, 50⁄50 are the odds to start with when all you know is that it’s common enough to come to your attention, and that it “feels” balanced whether or not it’ll happen.
In other words, “undefined and inapplicable” is the probability for things you know nothing about. Almost all things you can apply probability to, you know SOMETHING about.
You add another layer of mixing literal and figurative “don’t know anything” to the term “singularity”. Also, don’t forget to multiply by the probability that a singularity-on-relevant-factors might not have happened for the thing you’re predicting.