Great post. The political process selects for ability to construct narratives, tell stories, blame others for failures and take the credit for successes, etc. So that’s what we get. Sometimes by chance we get more, very often not. The pandemic has laid bare the incompetence of many world leaders on both sides of the political divide.
It is also a great illustration of the power of politics in filtering people’s reality.
Specifically on innumeracy we see again and again the rejection of simple measures that would reduce infectivity because they are not perfect or not high status. I am referring to some of the measures taken by Taiwan—with no lockdown and 1/1500 th the death rate per capita of the USA—such as universal use of face masks and screening people entering shops for symptoms and fever. These measures filter down the infectivity of the population as a whole such that r0(eff)<1 or close to that level, at relatively modest cost. In this podcast we hear from a doctor that masks and screening are only useful as ways of showing that we care. Really*. https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/have-we-been-too-easy-on-rule-breakers/12524256
Drastic measures like lockdowns seem to be perversely popular because they seem to signal ‘strong’ leadership. Even though they are not very effective, part because you cannot lock down the whole society, and are enormously expensive. There is great faith in contact tracing, which simulations show only helps if it is very rapid and if test results come back fast and if quarantine is very strictly enforced. In many countries none of the above apply.
*Another filtering problem: The medical training system in large part filters for the ability to memorize vast amounts of material and for physical and mental stamina. And not much else. Sometimes by chance people get through this system who are statistically, mathematically and numerically literate but many get through who are not. Even researchers—as a perusal of the medical research literature quickly attests. Did you know that p>0.05 shows that there is no effect? People who took Vioxx and had a heart attack, more than 50,000 excess heart attacks in all, may disagree.
Great post. The political process selects for ability to construct narratives, tell stories, blame others for failures and take the credit for successes, etc. So that’s what we get. Sometimes by chance we get more, very often not. The pandemic has laid bare the incompetence of many world leaders on both sides of the political divide.
It is also a great illustration of the power of politics in filtering people’s reality.
Specifically on innumeracy we see again and again the rejection of simple measures that would reduce infectivity because they are not perfect or not high status. I am referring to some of the measures taken by Taiwan—with no lockdown and 1/1500 th the death rate per capita of the USA—such as universal use of face masks and screening people entering shops for symptoms and fever. These measures filter down the infectivity of the population as a whole such that r0(eff)<1 or close to that level, at relatively modest cost. In this podcast we hear from a doctor that masks and screening are only useful as ways of showing that we care. Really*. https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/have-we-been-too-easy-on-rule-breakers/12524256
Drastic measures like lockdowns seem to be perversely popular because they seem to signal ‘strong’ leadership. Even though they are not very effective, part because you cannot lock down the whole society, and are enormously expensive. There is great faith in contact tracing, which simulations show only helps if it is very rapid and if test results come back fast and if quarantine is very strictly enforced. In many countries none of the above apply.
*Another filtering problem: The medical training system in large part filters for the ability to memorize vast amounts of material and for physical and mental stamina. And not much else. Sometimes by chance people get through this system who are statistically, mathematically and numerically literate but many get through who are not. Even researchers—as a perusal of the medical research literature quickly attests. Did you know that p>0.05 shows that there is no effect? People who took Vioxx and had a heart attack, more than 50,000 excess heart attacks in all, may disagree.