I think I could do pretty well (it’s plausible to me that I’m the favorite in any head-to-head match with someone who isn’t a current MIRI employee? probably not but I’m at least close). There are definitely some places I still get surprised and don’t expect to do that well, e.g. I was recently surprised by one of Eliezer’s positions regarding the relative difficulty of some kinds of reasoning tasks for near-future language models (and I expect there are similar surprises in domains that are less close to near-term predictions). I don’t really know how to split it into parts for the purpose of saying what I’ve got or not.
I think I could do pretty well (it’s plausible to me that I’m the favorite in any head-to-head match with someone who isn’t a current MIRI employee? probably not but I’m at least close). There are definitely some places I still get surprised and don’t expect to do that well, e.g. I was recently surprised by one of Eliezer’s positions regarding the relative difficulty of some kinds of reasoning tasks for near-future language models (and I expect there are similar surprises in domains that are less close to near-term predictions). I don’t really know how to split it into parts for the purpose of saying what I’ve got or not.