I think that by count across all the possible worlds (and the impossible ones) the vast majority of observers like us are in simulations. And probably by count in our universe the vast majority of observers like us are in simulations, except that everything is infinite and so counting observers is pretty meaningless (which just helps to see that it was never the thing you should care about).
I’m not sure “we’re in a simulation” is the kind of thing it’s meaningful to talk about credences in, but it’s definitely coherent to talk about betting odds (i.e. how much would I be willing to have copies of me in a simulation sacrifice for copies of me outside of a simulation to benefit?). You don’t want to talk about those using $ since $ are obviously radically more valuable outside of the simulation and that will dominate the calculation of betting odds. But we can measure in terms of experiences (how would I trade off welfare between the group inside and outside the simulation). I’d perhaps take a 2:1 rate, i.e. implying I think there’s a 2⁄3 “chance” that we’re in a simulation? But pretty unstable and complicated.
What’s your current credence that we’re in a simulation?
I think that by count across all the possible worlds (and the impossible ones) the vast majority of observers like us are in simulations. And probably by count in our universe the vast majority of observers like us are in simulations, except that everything is infinite and so counting observers is pretty meaningless (which just helps to see that it was never the thing you should care about).
I’m not sure “we’re in a simulation” is the kind of thing it’s meaningful to talk about credences in, but it’s definitely coherent to talk about betting odds (i.e. how much would I be willing to have copies of me in a simulation sacrifice for copies of me outside of a simulation to benefit?). You don’t want to talk about those using $ since $ are obviously radically more valuable outside of the simulation and that will dominate the calculation of betting odds. But we can measure in terms of experiences (how would I trade off welfare between the group inside and outside the simulation). I’d perhaps take a 2:1 rate, i.e. implying I think there’s a 2⁄3 “chance” that we’re in a simulation? But pretty unstable and complicated.