That’s an estimate for TAI (i.e. world doubling every 4 years), not sure what “AGI” means exactly.
Broad distribution in both directions, reasonably good chance by 2040 (maybe 25%)?
Don’t hold me to that. I think it’s literally not the same as the last time someone asked in this AMA, inconsistencies preserved to give a sense for stability.
If you believe AGI will be created. What would be the median year you think it will be created at?
Ex. −2046, 2074, etc.
2065
That’s an estimate for TAI (i.e. world doubling every 4 years), not sure what “AGI” means exactly.
Broad distribution in both directions, reasonably good chance by 2040 (maybe 25%)?
Don’t hold me to that. I think it’s literally not the same as the last time someone asked in this AMA, inconsistencies preserved to give a sense for stability.