For the initial projects, the plan is to find algorithmic ideas (or ideally a whole algorithm) that works well in practice, can be adopted by labs today, and would put us in a way better position with respect to future alignment challenges. If we succeed in that project, then I’m reasonably optimistic about being able to demonstrate the value of our ideas and get them adopted in practice (by a combination of describing them publicly, talking with people at labs, advising people who are trying to pressure labs to take alignment seriously about what their asks should be, and consulting for labs to help implement ideas). Even if adoption or demonstrating desirability turns out to be hard, I think that the alignment community would be in a much better place if we had a proposal that we all felt good about that we were advocating for (since we’d then have a better shot at doing so, and labs that were serious about alignment would be able to figure out what to do).
Beyond that, I’m also excited about offering concrete and well-justified advice (either about what algorithms to use or about alignment-relevant deployment decisions) that can help labs who care about alignment, or can be taken as a clear indicator of best practices so be adopted by labs who want to present as socially-responsible (whether to please employees, funders, civil society, or competitors).
But I’m mostly thinking about the impact of initial activities, and for that I feel like the theory of change is relatively concrete/straightforward.
For the initial projects, the plan is to find algorithmic ideas (or ideally a whole algorithm) that works well in practice, can be adopted by labs today, and would put us in a way better position with respect to future alignment challenges. If we succeed in that project, then I’m reasonably optimistic about being able to demonstrate the value of our ideas and get them adopted in practice (by a combination of describing them publicly, talking with people at labs, advising people who are trying to pressure labs to take alignment seriously about what their asks should be, and consulting for labs to help implement ideas). Even if adoption or demonstrating desirability turns out to be hard, I think that the alignment community would be in a much better place if we had a proposal that we all felt good about that we were advocating for (since we’d then have a better shot at doing so, and labs that were serious about alignment would be able to figure out what to do).
Beyond that, I’m also excited about offering concrete and well-justified advice (either about what algorithms to use or about alignment-relevant deployment decisions) that can help labs who care about alignment, or can be taken as a clear indicator of best practices so be adopted by labs who want to present as socially-responsible (whether to please employees, funders, civil society, or competitors).
But I’m mostly thinking about the impact of initial activities, and for that I feel like the theory of change is relatively concrete/straightforward.