Well, after a small publicity campaign, villains will start to ask Oracles whether there [b]is[/b] any world to rule after they take over the world. No really, XX century teaches us that MAD is something that can calm people with power reliably.
Virus that kills 100% of humanity armed with more information processing power to counter it than the virus designer has to build it is not easy to create. 75% may be easy enough at some stage; but it is not an existential risk. On the plus side we may be able to use the OAIs on the good side to fight multiply resistant bug strains in the case they become pathogenic.
I agree that we have too few well-documented cases. But there are also some reasons behind MAD being effective. It doesn’t look like MAD is fluctuation. It is not a bulletproof evidence, but it is sme evendence.
Also, it is complementary to the second part: MAD via OAI means also high chances of partial parrying the strike.
Well, after a small publicity campaign, villains will start to ask Oracles whether there [b]is[/b] any world to rule after they take over the world. No really, XX century teaches us that MAD is something that can calm people with power reliably.
Virus that kills 100% of humanity armed with more information processing power to counter it than the virus designer has to build it is not easy to create. 75% may be easy enough at some stage; but it is not an existential risk. On the plus side we may be able to use the OAIs on the good side to fight multiply resistant bug strains in the case they become pathogenic.
One should be reluctant to generalize from a very small dataset, particularly when the stakes are this high.
I agree that we have too few well-documented cases. But there are also some reasons behind MAD being effective. It doesn’t look like MAD is fluctuation. It is not a bulletproof evidence, but it is sme evendence.
Also, it is complementary to the second part: MAD via OAI means also high chances of partial parrying the strike.