For what it’s worth, I was so far intuitively trying something like “mourning for the probability-mass lost”.
(Roughly: I have a model which includes uncertainty over various ways the world could be. Such as the parameter of “how hard is it to build AI”. And when I see new things happening in the world, I try to update my expecation for the future, under different parameter values. In this case, this would be: Seeing that we keep on releasing bigger and bigger LLMs. And seeing that the AutoGPT idea was more obvious to ppl than I thought. Concluding that in the worlds where [something like-AutoGPT + GPT-5 is enough for fast takeoff], we are screwed. And then trying to mourn those worlds without giving up on the remaining worlds.)
It took me a long time to parse that last sentence in a way that made any sense to me. I had a lot of trouble with the concept of “trying to mourn (without giving up)”, but I guess it’s really more like “trying to not give up (while mourning)”?
For what it’s worth, I was so far intuitively trying something like “mourning for the probability-mass lost”.
(Roughly: I have a model which includes uncertainty over various ways the world could be. Such as the parameter of “how hard is it to build AI”. And when I see new things happening in the world, I try to update my expecation for the future, under different parameter values. In this case, this would be: Seeing that we keep on releasing bigger and bigger LLMs. And seeing that the AutoGPT idea was more obvious to ppl than I thought. Concluding that in the worlds where [something like-AutoGPT + GPT-5 is enough for fast takeoff], we are screwed. And then trying to mourn those worlds without giving up on the remaining worlds.)
It took me a long time to parse that last sentence in a way that made any sense to me. I had a lot of trouble with the concept of “trying to mourn (without giving up)”, but I guess it’s really more like “trying to not give up (while mourning)”?
Rephrased to “And then trying to mourn those worlds without giving up on the remaining worlds.”.
I guess I meant something like trying to see the situation as vaguely similar to “one of my three pets died, but the other two are still here”.