I’m not convinced; but it’s interesting. A lot hinges on the next-to-last paragraph, which is dubious and handwavy.
One weakness is that, when you say that chimpanzees looked like they were well-developed creatures, but really they had this huge unknown gap in their capabilities, which we filled in, I don’t read that as evidence that now we are fully-balanced creatures with no gaps. I wonder where the next gap is. (EDIT: See jimrandomh’s excellent comment below.)
What if an AI invents quantum computing? Or, I don’t know, is rational?
Another weakness is the assumption that the various scales you measure things on, like go ratings, are “linear”. Go ratings, at least, are not. A decrease in 1 kyu is supposed to mean an increase in likelihood ratio of winning by a factor of 3. Also, by your logic, it should take twice as long to go from 29 kyu to 28, as from 30 to 29; no one should ever reach 10 kyu.
Over the last five or six million years, our lineage upgraded computing power (brain size) by about a factor of three, and upgraded firmware to an extent that is unknown but was surely more like a percentage than an order of magnitude. The result was not a corresponding improvement in capability. It was a jump from almost no to fully general symbolic intelligence, which took us from a small niche to mastery of the world. How? Why?
It is certainly intriguing; but it’s not proven that there was any jump in capability. You could also argue that there was a level of intelligence that, once crossed, led to a phase transition, perhaps a self-sustaining increase in culturally-transmitted knowledge. Maybe chimpanzees were 99% of the way there. A chimpanzee might think she was immeasurably smarter than a monkey.
I don’t think people use symbol processing and logic the way computer programs do. The mouse the cat the dog chased hunted squeaked. I’m not convinced that the cognitive difference between a very bright chimpanzee and a dull human is as large as the cognitive difference between a dull human and a very bright human. I’m not convinced that the ability to string words together into sentences is as big a deal as humans say it is. If it were, nonverbal communication wouldn’t be as important as it is. And I wouldn’t have heard so many depressingly-stupid sentences.
I don’t read that as evidence that now we are fully-balanced creatures with no gaps. I wonder where the next gap is.
Mind you, I don’t think we, in isolation, are close to fully balanced; we are still quite deficient in areas like accurate data storage and arithmetic. Fortunately we have computers to fill those gaps for us. Your question is then essentially, are there big gaps in the combined system of humans plus computers—in other words, are there big opportunities we’re overlooking, important application domains within the reach of present-day technology, not yet exploited? I think the answer is no; of course outside pure mathematics, it’s not possible to prove a negative, only to keep accumulating absence of evidence to the point where it becomes evidence of absence. But I would certainly be interested in any ideas for such gaps.
Another weakness is the assumption that the various scales you measure things on, like go ratings, are “linear”. Go ratings, at least, are not.
No indeed! I should clarify that exponential inputs to certain to produce exponential outputs—an example I gave is chip design, where the outputs feed back into the inputs, getting us fairly smooth exponential growth. Put another way, the curve of capability is a straight line on a log-log graph; I’m merely arguing against the existence of steeper growth than that.
And I wouldn’t have heard so many depressingly-stupid sentences.
QFT. Necessary conditions are not, unfortunately, sufficient conditions :P
I’m not convinced; but it’s interesting. A lot hinges on the next-to-last paragraph, which is dubious and handwavy.
One weakness is that, when you say that chimpanzees looked like they were well-developed creatures, but really they had this huge unknown gap in their capabilities, which we filled in, I don’t read that as evidence that now we are fully-balanced creatures with no gaps. I wonder where the next gap is. (EDIT: See jimrandomh’s excellent comment below.)
What if an AI invents quantum computing? Or, I don’t know, is rational?
Another weakness is the assumption that the various scales you measure things on, like go ratings, are “linear”. Go ratings, at least, are not. A decrease in 1 kyu is supposed to mean an increase in likelihood ratio of winning by a factor of 3. Also, by your logic, it should take twice as long to go from 29 kyu to 28, as from 30 to 29; no one should ever reach 10 kyu.
It is certainly intriguing; but it’s not proven that there was any jump in capability. You could also argue that there was a level of intelligence that, once crossed, led to a phase transition, perhaps a self-sustaining increase in culturally-transmitted knowledge. Maybe chimpanzees were 99% of the way there. A chimpanzee might think she was immeasurably smarter than a monkey.
I don’t think people use symbol processing and logic the way computer programs do. The mouse the cat the dog chased hunted squeaked. I’m not convinced that the cognitive difference between a very bright chimpanzee and a dull human is as large as the cognitive difference between a dull human and a very bright human. I’m not convinced that the ability to string words together into sentences is as big a deal as humans say it is. If it were, nonverbal communication wouldn’t be as important as it is. And I wouldn’t have heard so many depressingly-stupid sentences.
Mind you, I don’t think we, in isolation, are close to fully balanced; we are still quite deficient in areas like accurate data storage and arithmetic. Fortunately we have computers to fill those gaps for us. Your question is then essentially, are there big gaps in the combined system of humans plus computers—in other words, are there big opportunities we’re overlooking, important application domains within the reach of present-day technology, not yet exploited? I think the answer is no; of course outside pure mathematics, it’s not possible to prove a negative, only to keep accumulating absence of evidence to the point where it becomes evidence of absence. But I would certainly be interested in any ideas for such gaps.
No indeed! I should clarify that exponential inputs to certain to produce exponential outputs—an example I gave is chip design, where the outputs feed back into the inputs, getting us fairly smooth exponential growth. Put another way, the curve of capability is a straight line on a log-log graph; I’m merely arguing against the existence of steeper growth than that.
QFT. Necessary conditions are not, unfortunately, sufficient conditions :P