If we’re going to bet, we have to bet on the right thing. The question isn’t about whether I survived the Cold War (which we already know), it’s about whether the Cold War was dangerous. So, what would I actually bet on? I don’t know how to quantify the dangerousness of the Cold War in real life, but here’s a simpler scenario: if Omega flipped a coin before the Cold War and, if it came up heads, he precisely adjusted the circumstances to make it so the Cold War had a 25% chance of killing me, and if tails, a 75% chance, then asked me to bet on heads or tails now in 2018, I would be willing to bet on heads at up to 3:1 odds.
If we’re going to bet, we have to bet on the right thing. The question isn’t about whether I survived the Cold War (which we already know), it’s about whether the Cold War was dangerous. So, what would I actually bet on? I don’t know how to quantify the dangerousness of the Cold War in real life, but here’s a simpler scenario: if Omega flipped a coin before the Cold War and, if it came up heads, he precisely adjusted the circumstances to make it so the Cold War had a 25% chance of killing me, and if tails, a 75% chance, then asked me to bet on heads or tails now in 2018, I would be willing to bet on heads at up to 3:1 odds.