Ok, I’ve revised the idea entirely.
See here for why FNC doesn’t work as a probability theory (and neither do SIA or SSA): https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNi8bSYexYGn9kiRh/paradoxes-in-all-anthropic-probabilities
See here for how you can use proper scoring functions to answer the probability of seeing alien life in the galaxy; depending on whether you average the scores or total them, you get SSA-style or SIA-style answers: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M9sb3dJNXCngixWvy/anthropics-and-fermi
Ok, I’ve revised the idea entirely.
See here for why FNC doesn’t work as a probability theory (and neither do SIA or SSA): https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNi8bSYexYGn9kiRh/paradoxes-in-all-anthropic-probabilities
See here for how you can use proper scoring functions to answer the probability of seeing alien life in the galaxy; depending on whether you average the scores or total them, you get SSA-style or SIA-style answers: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M9sb3dJNXCngixWvy/anthropics-and-fermi