By the way, I don’t think I saw an explicit answer to my question about Bob who is cryonically frozen in 1950. Should he update his probability estimate of Cold War safety upon learning of recent history, or not?
Why not have him update? If it’s new info his probability will change, if it’s old info it will remain the same. It’s never new info and the probability doesn’t change. This only happens if you’ve implicitly assumed he knows it.
By the way, I don’t think I saw an explicit answer to my question about Bob who is cryonically frozen in 1950. Should he update his probability estimate of Cold War safety upon learning of recent history, or not?
Why not have him update? If it’s new info his probability will change, if it’s old info it will remain the same. It’s never new info and the probability doesn’t change. This only happens if you’ve implicitly assumed he knows it.