I didn’t realize I was being unclear in that last post! Clearly it’s one of those things that takes practice. (In my defense I really don’t know where the median LW reader is at math; the level of that post was a wild guess.)
Glad you’re not opposed to LessWrong as a place. I’m not certain myself whether it really fulfills its stated goal of helping people come to conclusions more rationally. (When decisions are actually hard, when empirical evidence is sparse and trial-and-error is impossible, I’m not sure it’s possible to decide rationally at all! )
I think one thing it does is promote a norm of measured thinking, where we keep our emotions at a conversational level instead of letting them shout. I’ve definitely noticed that attitude spilling out into my everyday life, and I find myself checking “do I think that’s really plausible or am I just saying it?”
I didn’t realize I was being unclear in that last post!
No, that isn’t it. It’s just that the math was above my current level of education. It was all Chinese to me! That doesn’t mean that I am against advanced math posts. I believe more technical posts would improve Less Wrong a lot. I loved the recent posts by cousin_it. Even though the key issues have been above my head they introduced me to so many new ideas. They gave me this feeling of discovering and learning something new and important. And the discussions they spawned have been of higher standard because nobody of lower education dared to say much. They also spawned awesome comments like this one. Your post is no different, just that I deferred reading it until I learnt the necessary math. Such posts actually give me incentive to learn more.
How to improve Less Wrong:
Write more technical posts (including math).
Either: Define the demographics. Explicitly mention the level of education necessary for all of Less Wrong.
Or: Introduce labels rating the level of difficulty for each post.
Provide more background knowledge in each post you write through references and links.
Someone like me has to look up each of the symbols. It would have been much easier this way: If P(Y|X) ≈ 1, then P(X∧Y) ≈ P(X).
“If” should not go to Conditional_(Programming), but “Logical Implication”, though I don’t see the need for a link. It really is just the standard meaning of “if”, and if people don’t know the meaning of “if”, advanced rationality is probably a bit beyond what they can immediately use.
“1” as a link to percentage is odd as well. It’s just the number one. Yes, people are often more used to it as 100% in the context of probability, but the link doesn’t clarify that in any useful way.
The links for conditional probability and conjunction are great though. It’s quite possible to not be familiar with those particular bits of notation.
I know, but you see what’s the issue here. It actually has been a problem all my life. I’m really happy that there are now places like the Khan Academy and BetterExplained that actually explain such matters in a concise and straightforward way, not like school teachers who you never understand. Most of the time I only have to watch/read their explanation once to grasp it. Further they go into details you are never told about in school.
I guess I’m the kind of person who is unable to accept that 1+1=2 until someone explains the terms and operators. I only started with mathematics last year with a previous knowledge of basic arithmetic. Yet the first things I tried to figure out is what ‘+’ actually means. That showed me that infix operators are functions and led me to the recursive and set theoretic definition of addition. Only at that point I have been satisfied. Which reminds me of a problem I had in German lessons back in elementary school. I always insisted to pronounce certain words the way I thought it was the most logical consistent to do, e.g. to pronounce ‘st’ not as ‘sch’. Nobody ever told me that natural language evolved and that it is just an axiomatic definition, a cultural consensus to pronounce it in a certain way, not something you can infer from the general to the specific. So I kept pronouncing it the way I thought it was reasonable and ended up with bad grades. Such problems accumulated and I just stopped doing anything for school (also because I thought the other kids are all aliens). I’m only beginning to catch up for a few years now. English was the first thing I taught myself.
The links for conditional probability and conjunction are great though. It’s quite possible to not be familiar with those particular bits of notation.
Hah! You must be one of those people who are only surrounded by educated folks. I don’t know anyone in real-life who has any clue what a logical conjunction could be (been working as baker and doing roadworks). Something nasty maybe :-)
I didn’t realize I was being unclear in that last post! Clearly it’s one of those things that takes practice. (In my defense I really don’t know where the median LW reader is at math; the level of that post was a wild guess.)
Glad you’re not opposed to LessWrong as a place. I’m not certain myself whether it really fulfills its stated goal of helping people come to conclusions more rationally. (When decisions are actually hard, when empirical evidence is sparse and trial-and-error is impossible, I’m not sure it’s possible to decide rationally at all! )
I think one thing it does is promote a norm of measured thinking, where we keep our emotions at a conversational level instead of letting them shout. I’ve definitely noticed that attitude spilling out into my everyday life, and I find myself checking “do I think that’s really plausible or am I just saying it?”
No, that isn’t it. It’s just that the math was above my current level of education. It was all Chinese to me! That doesn’t mean that I am against advanced math posts. I believe more technical posts would improve Less Wrong a lot. I loved the recent posts by cousin_it. Even though the key issues have been above my head they introduced me to so many new ideas. They gave me this feeling of discovering and learning something new and important. And the discussions they spawned have been of higher standard because nobody of lower education dared to say much. They also spawned awesome comments like this one. Your post is no different, just that I deferred reading it until I learnt the necessary math. Such posts actually give me incentive to learn more.
How to improve Less Wrong:
Write more technical posts (including math).
Either: Define the demographics. Explicitly mention the level of education necessary for all of Less Wrong.
Or: Introduce labels rating the level of difficulty for each post.
Provide more background knowledge in each post you write through references and links.
Example:
Someone like me has to look up each of the symbols. It would have been much easier this way: If P(Y|X) ≈ 1, then P(X∧Y) ≈ P(X).
Advance the FAQ and link to it on the frontpage (When should I write a top-level article?; You must read the sequences before commenting etc.).
Be more kind to people who don’t know better. Try to link them up and don’t explain what’s wrong but why and how they are wrong.
Yeah, I’m trying hard not to write without thinking. Sometimes I still fail, especially when I’m tired.
“If” should not go to Conditional_(Programming), but “Logical Implication”, though I don’t see the need for a link. It really is just the standard meaning of “if”, and if people don’t know the meaning of “if”, advanced rationality is probably a bit beyond what they can immediately use.
“1” as a link to percentage is odd as well. It’s just the number one. Yes, people are often more used to it as 100% in the context of probability, but the link doesn’t clarify that in any useful way.
The links for conditional probability and conjunction are great though. It’s quite possible to not be familiar with those particular bits of notation.
I know, but you see what’s the issue here. It actually has been a problem all my life. I’m really happy that there are now places like the Khan Academy and BetterExplained that actually explain such matters in a concise and straightforward way, not like school teachers who you never understand. Most of the time I only have to watch/read their explanation once to grasp it. Further they go into details you are never told about in school.
I guess I’m the kind of person who is unable to accept that 1+1=2 until someone explains the terms and operators. I only started with mathematics last year with a previous knowledge of basic arithmetic. Yet the first things I tried to figure out is what ‘+’ actually means. That showed me that infix operators are functions and led me to the recursive and set theoretic definition of addition. Only at that point I have been satisfied. Which reminds me of a problem I had in German lessons back in elementary school. I always insisted to pronounce certain words the way I thought it was the most logical consistent to do, e.g. to pronounce ‘st’ not as ‘sch’. Nobody ever told me that natural language evolved and that it is just an axiomatic definition, a cultural consensus to pronounce it in a certain way, not something you can infer from the general to the specific. So I kept pronouncing it the way I thought it was reasonable and ended up with bad grades. Such problems accumulated and I just stopped doing anything for school (also because I thought the other kids are all aliens). I’m only beginning to catch up for a few years now. English was the first thing I taught myself.
Hah! You must be one of those people who are only surrounded by educated folks. I don’t know anyone in real-life who has any clue what a logical conjunction could be (been working as baker and doing roadworks). Something nasty maybe :-)
I find myself checking “I think that’s really plausible. That can’t be good. I wonder what I should be saying instead to be socially successful.” ;)