Events are subsets of outcome space, not just single outcomes. If your prediction is merely “I will be declared the winner of this fencing match,” and space aliens mind-control the judges so that they declare you the winner before you even arrive, you were correct, because that outcome is within the subset you predicted. If you didn’t predict a specific mechanism, go ahead and laud yourself for predicting the correct event.
However, my own predictions (and, I suspect, those of most humans) are usually of a different character. They include some causal narrative. I think the tricky part is either removing that narrative from your prediction, or explicitly including what does and does not fall inside that narrative as separate predictions.
Events are subsets of outcome space, not just single outcomes. If your prediction is merely “I will be declared the winner of this fencing match,” and space aliens mind-control the judges so that they declare you the winner before you even arrive, you were correct, because that outcome is within the subset you predicted. If you didn’t predict a specific mechanism, go ahead and laud yourself for predicting the correct event.
However, my own predictions (and, I suspect, those of most humans) are usually of a different character. They include some causal narrative. I think the tricky part is either removing that narrative from your prediction, or explicitly including what does and does not fall inside that narrative as separate predictions.