My prediction about the outcome of the fencing bout could better be expressed as multiple predictions, for instance “I will score more points than my opponent” and “I will win the bout.”
What if lightning struck the building a day earlier and the match is called off? Of if you get arrested on the way to the match and thus you forfeit by failure to show up? Or if your opponent forfeits, which makes the first prediction wrong?
In those circumstances, there’s no reason to modify your prediction for the next time. While they were wrong, none of the wrongness had anything to do with your fencing skill.
A better set of statement might be “I will not score less points than my opponent.” and “I will not lose the bout on points.”. Although those logically reduce to almost the same prediction.
In fact, that seems like a reasonable general principle. Predictions often should state what won’t happen than what will. Stating what won’t happen allow you to automatically exclude many random outliers that are outside the scope of the prediction you’re trying to make.
If you state the prediction in such way that an ‘act of God’ means you are right, not wrong, then when they occur you don’t have to try to justify why your wrongness doesn’t really count. Granted, it doesn’t mean you were right, either, but, mentally, it’s probably safer to say ‘I technically got that right, but it doesn’t really count’ than ‘I technically got that wrong, but it doesn’t really count.’.
What if lightning struck the building a day earlier and the match is called off? Of if you get arrested on the way to the match and thus you forfeit by failure to show up? Or if your opponent forfeits, which makes the first prediction wrong?
In those circumstances, there’s no reason to modify your prediction for the next time. While they were wrong, none of the wrongness had anything to do with your fencing skill.
A better set of statement might be “I will not score less points than my opponent.” and “I will not lose the bout on points.”. Although those logically reduce to almost the same prediction.
In fact, that seems like a reasonable general principle. Predictions often should state what won’t happen than what will. Stating what won’t happen allow you to automatically exclude many random outliers that are outside the scope of the prediction you’re trying to make.
If you state the prediction in such way that an ‘act of God’ means you are right, not wrong, then when they occur you don’t have to try to justify why your wrongness doesn’t really count. Granted, it doesn’t mean you were right, either, but, mentally, it’s probably safer to say ‘I technically got that right, but it doesn’t really count’ than ‘I technically got that wrong, but it doesn’t really count.’.