It seems to me that, in fact, it’s entirely possible for a coin to come up aardvarks. Imagine, for a second, that unbeknownst to you a secret society of gnomes, concealed from you(or from society as a whole), occasionally decide to turn coins into aardvarks(or fulfill whatever condition you have for a coin to come up aardvarks.
Now, this is nonsense(obviously). But it’s technically possible in the sense that this race of gnomes could exist without contradicting your previous observations (only perhaps your conclusions based on them). Or, if you don’t accept the gnomish argument, consider that at any point there is a near infinitesimal chance that quantum particles will simply rearrange themselves in vast quantities into a specific form. Thus, it’s impossible for anything to have probability zero, except in the cases where you assert something which is impossible from the principles of logic, like P and not P.
Bayesian(and other logical) equations seem to make sense with 1 and 0, but that does not mean that they can ever exist in a real sense
It seems to me that, in fact, it’s entirely possible for a coin to come up aardvarks. …
For all practical purposes, none of that is ever going to happen. Neither is the coin going to be snatched away by a passing velociraptor, although out of doors, it could be snatched by a passing seagull or magpie, and I would not be surprised if this has actually happened.
Outré scenarios like these are never worth considering.
It seems to me that, in fact, it’s entirely possible for a coin to come up aardvarks. Imagine, for a second, that unbeknownst to you a secret society of gnomes, concealed from you(or from society as a whole), occasionally decide to turn coins into aardvarks(or fulfill whatever condition you have for a coin to come up aardvarks. Now, this is nonsense(obviously). But it’s technically possible in the sense that this race of gnomes could exist without contradicting your previous observations (only perhaps your conclusions based on them). Or, if you don’t accept the gnomish argument, consider that at any point there is a near infinitesimal chance that quantum particles will simply rearrange themselves in vast quantities into a specific form. Thus, it’s impossible for anything to have probability zero, except in the cases where you assert something which is impossible from the principles of logic, like P and not P. Bayesian(and other logical) equations seem to make sense with 1 and 0, but that does not mean that they can ever exist in a real sense
For all practical purposes, none of that is ever going to happen. Neither is the coin going to be snatched away by a passing velociraptor, although out of doors, it could be snatched by a passing seagull or magpie, and I would not be surprised if this has actually happened.
Outré scenarios like these are never worth considering.