As you say, Bob’s good epistemic reputation should count when he says something that appears wild, especially if he has a track record that endorses him in these cases (“We’ve thought he was crazy before, but he proved us wrong”). Maybe one should think of Bob as an epistemic ‘venture capitalist’, making (seemingly) wild epistemic bets which are right more often than chance (and often illuminating even if wrong), even if they aren’t right more often than not, and this might be enough to warrant further attention (“well, he’s probably wrong about this, but maybe he’s onto something”).
I’m not sure your suggestion pushes in the right direction in the case where—pricing all of that in—we still think Bob’s belief is unreasonable and he is unreasonable for holding it. The right responses in this case by my lights are two-fold.
First, you should dismiss (rather than engage with) Bob’s wild belief—as (ex hypothesi) all things considered it should be dismissed.
Second, it should (usually) count against Bob’s overall epistemic reputation. After all, whatever it was that meant despite Bob’s merits you think he’s saying something stupid is likely an indicator of epistemic vice.
This doesn’t mean it should be a global black mark to taking Bob seriously ever again. Even the best can err badly, so one should weigh up the whole record. Furthermore, epistemic virtue has a few dimensions, and Bob’s weaknesses in something need not mean his strengths in others be sufficient for attention esteem going forward: An archetype I have in mind with ‘epistemic venture capitalist’ is someone clever, creative, yet cocky and epistemically immodest—has lots of novel ideas, some true, more interesting, but many ‘duds’ arising from not doing their homework, being hedgehogs with their preferred ‘big idea’, etc.
I accept, notwithstanding those caveats, this still disincentivizes epistemic venture capitalists like Bob to some degree. Although I only have anecdata, this leans in favour of some sort of trade-off: brilliant thinkers often appear poorly calibrated and indulge in all sorts of foolish beliefs; interviews with superforecasters (e.g.) tend to emphasise things like “don’t trust your intuition, be very self sceptical, canvass lots of views, do lots of careful research on a topic before staking out a view”. Yet good epistemic progress relies on both—and if they lie on a convex frontier, one wants to have a division of labour.
Although the right balance to strike re. second order norms depends on tricky questions on which sort of work is currently under-supplied, which has higher value on the margin, and the current norms of communal practice (all of which may differ by community), my hunch is ‘epistemic tenure’ (going beyond what I sketch above) tends disadvantageous.
One is noting the are plausible costs in both directions. ‘Tenure’-esque practice could spur on crack pots, have too lax a filter for noise-esque ideas, discourage broadly praiseworthy epistemic norms (cf. virtue of scholarship), and maybe not give Bob-like figures enough guidance so they range too far and unproductively (e.g. I recall one Nobel Laureate mentioning the idea of, “Once you win your Nobel Prize, you should go and try and figure out the hard problem of consciousness”—which seems a terrible idea).
The other is even if there is a trade-off, one still wants to reach the one’s frontier on ‘calibration/accuracy/whatever’. Scott Sumner seems to be able to combine researching on the inside view alongside judging on the outside view (see). This seems better for Sumner, and the wider intellectual community, than Sumner* who could not do the latter.
As you say, Bob’s good epistemic reputation should count when he says something that appears wild, especially if he has a track record that endorses him in these cases (“We’ve thought he was crazy before, but he proved us wrong”). Maybe one should think of Bob as an epistemic ‘venture capitalist’, making (seemingly) wild epistemic bets which are right more often than chance (and often illuminating even if wrong), even if they aren’t right more often than not, and this might be enough to warrant further attention (“well, he’s probably wrong about this, but maybe he’s onto something”).
I’m not sure your suggestion pushes in the right direction in the case where—pricing all of that in—we still think Bob’s belief is unreasonable and he is unreasonable for holding it. The right responses in this case by my lights are two-fold.
First, you should dismiss (rather than engage with) Bob’s wild belief—as (ex hypothesi) all things considered it should be dismissed.
Second, it should (usually) count against Bob’s overall epistemic reputation. After all, whatever it was that meant despite Bob’s merits you think he’s saying something stupid is likely an indicator of epistemic vice.
This doesn’t mean it should be a global black mark to taking Bob seriously ever again. Even the best can err badly, so one should weigh up the whole record. Furthermore, epistemic virtue has a few dimensions, and Bob’s weaknesses in something need not mean his strengths in others be sufficient for attention esteem going forward: An archetype I have in mind with ‘epistemic venture capitalist’ is someone clever, creative, yet cocky and epistemically immodest—has lots of novel ideas, some true, more interesting, but many ‘duds’ arising from not doing their homework, being hedgehogs with their preferred ‘big idea’, etc.
I accept, notwithstanding those caveats, this still disincentivizes epistemic venture capitalists like Bob to some degree. Although I only have anecdata, this leans in favour of some sort of trade-off: brilliant thinkers often appear poorly calibrated and indulge in all sorts of foolish beliefs; interviews with superforecasters (e.g.) tend to emphasise things like “don’t trust your intuition, be very self sceptical, canvass lots of views, do lots of careful research on a topic before staking out a view”. Yet good epistemic progress relies on both—and if they lie on a convex frontier, one wants to have a division of labour.
Although the right balance to strike re. second order norms depends on tricky questions on which sort of work is currently under-supplied, which has higher value on the margin, and the current norms of communal practice (all of which may differ by community), my hunch is ‘epistemic tenure’ (going beyond what I sketch above) tends disadvantageous.
One is noting the are plausible costs in both directions. ‘Tenure’-esque practice could spur on crack pots, have too lax a filter for noise-esque ideas, discourage broadly praiseworthy epistemic norms (cf. virtue of scholarship), and maybe not give Bob-like figures enough guidance so they range too far and unproductively (e.g. I recall one Nobel Laureate mentioning the idea of, “Once you win your Nobel Prize, you should go and try and figure out the hard problem of consciousness”—which seems a terrible idea).
The other is even if there is a trade-off, one still wants to reach the one’s frontier on ‘calibration/accuracy/whatever’. Scott Sumner seems to be able to combine researching on the inside view alongside judging on the outside view (see). This seems better for Sumner, and the wider intellectual community, than Sumner* who could not do the latter.