I don’t specifically remember, but I think I was mostly going for “only have to check the number in one place” (not expecting that the series would stop in 2019), and secondarily I expected we both thought inflation would be predictable, and so this provided some margin in the case where wages stagnated but didn’t fall by much.
Came across this again randomly. Why were you offering the bet on nominal income instead of adjusting for inflation?
(That particular series hasn’t updated since 2019)
I don’t specifically remember, but I think I was mostly going for “only have to check the number in one place” (not expecting that the series would stop in 2019), and secondarily I expected we both thought inflation would be predictable, and so this provided some margin in the case where wages stagnated but didn’t fall by much.