I am almost totally positive that the plan is not that.
If planning for 2029 is cheap, then it probably makes sense under a very broad class of timelines expectations. If it is expensive, then the following applies to the hypothetical presented by the tweet:
The timeline evoked in the tweet seems extremely fast and multipolar. I’d expect planning for 2029 compute scaling to make sense only if the current paradigm gets stuck at ~AGI capabilities level (ie a very good scaffolding for a model similar to but a bit smarter than o3). This is because if it scales further than that it will do so fast (requiring little compute, as the tweet suggests). If capabilities arbitrarily better than o4-with-good-scaffolding are compute-cheap to develop, then things almost certainly get very unpredictable before 2029.
I am almost totally positive that the plan is not that.
If planning for 2029 is cheap, then it probably makes sense under a very broad class of timelines expectations.
If it is expensive, then the following applies to the hypothetical presented by the tweet:
The timeline evoked in the tweet seems extremely fast and multipolar. I’d expect planning for 2029 compute scaling to make sense only if the current paradigm gets stuck at ~AGI capabilities level (ie a very good scaffolding for a model similar to but a bit smarter than o3). This is because if it scales further than that it will do so fast (requiring little compute, as the tweet suggests). If capabilities arbitrarily better than o4-with-good-scaffolding are compute-cheap to develop, then things almost certainly get very unpredictable before 2029.