The description above doesn’t mention probability, but the real-world situations where this turns up tend to involve situations where either the event is of low probability, or where one side claims that the consequences of the event are so severe that the other side shouldn’t bother arguing that the event is of low probability. As a practical matter, saying “we must do X or the human species doesn’t survive” usually amounts to Pascal’s Mugging.
The description above doesn’t mention probability, but the real-world situations where this turns up tend to involve situations where either the event is of low probability, or where one side claims that the consequences of the event are so severe that the other side shouldn’t bother arguing that the event is of low probability. As a practical matter, saying “we must do X or the human species doesn’t survive” usually amounts to Pascal’s Mugging.
So you know you were wrong, you admit you were wrong, ‘but’ you’re going to continue going on about how really you’re right. Yeah, no thanks.
http://lesswrong.com/lw/z0/the_pascals_wager_fallacy_fallacy/