How long time do you see between “1 AI clearly on track to Foom” and “First AI to actually Foom”?
My weak guess is Eliezer would say “Probably quite little time”, but your model of the world requires the GWP to double over a 4 year period, and I’m guessing that period probably starts later than 2026.
I would be surprised if by 2027, I could point to an AI that for a full year had been on track to Foom, without Foom happening.
How long time do you see between “1 AI clearly on track to Foom” and “First AI to actually Foom”? My weak guess is Eliezer would say “Probably quite little time”, but your model of the world requires the GWP to double over a 4 year period, and I’m guessing that period probably starts later than 2026.
I would be surprised if by 2027, I could point to an AI that for a full year had been on track to Foom, without Foom happening.
I think “on track to foom” is a very long way before “actually fooms.”