I think the bet is a bad idea if you think in terms of Many Worlds. Say 55% of all worlds end by 2030. Then, even assuming that value-of-$-in-2017 = value-of-$-in-2030, Eliezer personally benefited from the bet. However, the epistemic result is Bryan getting prestige points in 45% of worlds, Eliezer getting prestige points in 0% of worlds.
The other problem with the bet is that, if we adjust for inflation and returns of money, the bet is positive EV for Eliezer even given P(world-ends-by-2030) << 12.
I think the bet is a bad idea if you think in terms of Many Worlds. Say 55% of all worlds end by 2030. Then, even assuming that value-of-$-in-2017 = value-of-$-in-2030, Eliezer personally benefited from the bet. However, the epistemic result is Bryan getting prestige points in 45% of worlds, Eliezer getting prestige points in 0% of worlds.
The other problem with the bet is that, if we adjust for inflation and returns of money, the bet is positive EV for Eliezer even given P(world-ends-by-2030) << 12.