I keep expecting deaths to drop more than they do, and each week they keep dropping much less than cases drop. That seems like it can’t be sustained, and it feels like we are learning a lot about the time distribution of deaths, but at some point it’s going to have to come down. Nothing changed in terms of the actual death rate, so it doesn’t make any sense. Still, I have to expect something similar to continue for now.
Epistemic status: Generalizing from N=1.
I got COVID during the omicron wave and did not report it to anyone other than my family/acquaintances. Had i gotten COVID during a not-wave I probably would have reported it, since it feels like it would have been more important to report the information to society at large. If others have a similar enough psychology to my own, there may be a mechanism that results in undercounting cases during large waves, which would then cause the reported case fatality rate to rise during large waves (since nearly all cases that eventually lead to death would indeed get reported).
I got sick during the omicron wave too. It might have been covid. I don’t know. Either way, I didn’t bother reporting it to the authorities. Had I gotten covid during a previous wave I probably would have reported it too.
Epistemic status: Generalizing from N=1.
I got COVID during the omicron wave and did not report it to anyone other than my family/acquaintances. Had i gotten COVID during a not-wave I probably would have reported it, since it feels like it would have been more important to report the information to society at large. If others have a similar enough psychology to my own, there may be a mechanism that results in undercounting cases during large waves, which would then cause the reported case fatality rate to rise during large waves (since nearly all cases that eventually lead to death would indeed get reported).
N=2
I got sick during the omicron wave too. It might have been covid. I don’t know. Either way, I didn’t bother reporting it to the authorities. Had I gotten covid during a previous wave I probably would have reported it too.
This was also my guess, official counts dropping faster than unofficial.