It may lead to what I call “folk rationality” (doing what you think would lead to success). Barring a few exceptions (extremes of emotion, compromised mental states, etc), most humans are folk rational. However, this folk rationality isn’t what I refer to when I say “rational”.
How about “doing what you can figure out would lead to success”? The gambler could figure out the gambler’s fallacy, but the person crossing the road couldn’t figure out the meteorite.
In harder problems like Newcomb’s Problem or Counterfactual Mugging, there are several layers of “figuring out” leading to different answers, and there’s no substitute for using intelligence to choose between them. So to define what’s rational, we need to define what’s intelligent. People are working on that, but don’t expect an answer soon :-)
How about “doing what you can figure out would lead to success”? The gambler could figure out the gambler’s fallacy, but the person crossing the road couldn’t figure out the meteorite.
In harder problems like Newcomb’s Problem or Counterfactual Mugging, there are several layers of “figuring out” leading to different answers, and there’s no substitute for using intelligence to choose between them. So to define what’s rational, we need to define what’s intelligent. People are working on that, but don’t expect an answer soon :-)