First, I have actually been through a process of diagnosis that I submitted myself to for this very purpose—to uncover whatever underlying neurological issue I had. They found nothing out of the ordinary, and I function perfectly well. I am well adjusted, not on medication, and otherwise “normal.”
Second, comments like Eli’s about the lottery aren’t fair, because I never claimed to be omniscient, only to have some sort of extra perception.
Imagine a scenario in which the world is filled with deaf people. Human beings have never had a sense of hearing. I, through some genetic quirk, am born with a sense of hearing, however faint it may be, and I am faced with convincing the people around me that I can “hear.” My first obstacle is to explain what hearing even means to someone who has no basis for understanding it.
Even if they were able to form a mental image of what a sound might be like (I’m not sure how they would, but for the sake of argument...), they wouldn’t have a sense of the boundaries. Why can I hear air planes that are very far away from me but not hear what’s going on in the next room very well?
I cannot see lotto numbers, I’m afraid… however, and this brings me to the next point, I can “see” people’s superficial thoughts and one great way to demonstrate it is paper rock scissors.
I have done an experiment in which I played 100 games in a row with my wife, and wrote down the results. I can see which she’ll throw, and I’ll throw the opposite. I won 90% of the time (91 I think, but I didn’t keep the paper I wrote it on). That’s not really possible statistically.
You might wonder why I don’t submit myself to public scrutiny if my results are so consistent. Frankly, I’m terrified of it. Anyone who cared to test me would be doing so in the spirit of “outing” me, with the attitude that I was a crackpot… I don’t generally enjoy such circumstances.
If I did go forward in the interest of research, despite my personal reservations, then I know any mistake on my part would be magnified by the researchers and public to debunk me thanks to confirmation bias. In addition, I would expect to be faced with experiments devised in ignorance and so I’d be asked questions like “what are tomorrow’s lotto numbers?”
Frankly, under those conditions, I will fail. I am not that good. It’s a weaker sense that’s easily overwhelmed by the normal senses and by emotions, and I’m not that good. I couldn’t perform under pressure.
Even if I could, there would be very little upside: if I perform less than optimally, I’d be chided as an idiot or charlatan, and if I performed perfectly the experiments would be disregarded as flawed, and the subject matter silly. That’s all without mentioning the possible damage to my reputation… there’s not a lot of incentive.
Probably silly replying at this late date, but I’m going to do it anyway: Texas Holdem against strangers would be a much more compelling demonstration than RPS with your wife, and lucrative, too, if your powers are real. Surface thoughts should be sufficient to tell you when people are bluffing and when they genuinely have a strong hand, even if they don’t tell you exactly what cards they hold. Better yet, they should tell you when your opponents are confident enough to call your bluff, and when they’re not. That would give you a devastating advantage in the game. So I won’t hold my breath for your lottery wins, but if you genuinely have the abilities you describe I would expect to hear about your World Series of Poker bracelets.
Is your thought-reading ability equally effective against strangers, or people whose presence you’re aware of but who you can’t make eye contact with? If eye contact is required (or helpful), what about looking at the other person through a narrow opening, such as a mail slot, so that only their eyes are visible?
Could it be used to determine the presence or absence of a person on the opposite side of an opaque, soundproofed barrier?
In response to Ken saying a 90% win at Rock Paper Scissors is impossible, Rock Paper Scissors is not a very good test of the statistical significance of psychic powers. Rock Paper Scissors is something of a game of skill, especially when you are a playing against someone you know well that does not intentionally try to predict the other player’s thought process. Ken’s wife probably had something of a predictable pattern in that game—maybe she got bored, maybe she subconsciously played poorly to make Ken seem like more of a psychic.
http://www.worldrps.com/ It started as a joke, but it’s one of those jokes that became too serious for its own good. I would be very surprised if Ken could consistently beat any of the world’s top ranked RPS players.
It is much easier than you think to fool yourself about this sort of thing. Unless you’ve done a lot more experiments than the rock-paper-scissors one, and much more tightly controlled, you don’t have enough evidence to believe what you believe.
A few things.
First, I have actually been through a process of diagnosis that I submitted myself to for this very purpose—to uncover whatever underlying neurological issue I had. They found nothing out of the ordinary, and I function perfectly well. I am well adjusted, not on medication, and otherwise “normal.”
Second, comments like Eli’s about the lottery aren’t fair, because I never claimed to be omniscient, only to have some sort of extra perception.
Imagine a scenario in which the world is filled with deaf people. Human beings have never had a sense of hearing. I, through some genetic quirk, am born with a sense of hearing, however faint it may be, and I am faced with convincing the people around me that I can “hear.” My first obstacle is to explain what hearing even means to someone who has no basis for understanding it.
Even if they were able to form a mental image of what a sound might be like (I’m not sure how they would, but for the sake of argument...), they wouldn’t have a sense of the boundaries. Why can I hear air planes that are very far away from me but not hear what’s going on in the next room very well?
I cannot see lotto numbers, I’m afraid… however, and this brings me to the next point, I can “see” people’s superficial thoughts and one great way to demonstrate it is paper rock scissors.
I have done an experiment in which I played 100 games in a row with my wife, and wrote down the results. I can see which she’ll throw, and I’ll throw the opposite. I won 90% of the time (91 I think, but I didn’t keep the paper I wrote it on). That’s not really possible statistically.
You might wonder why I don’t submit myself to public scrutiny if my results are so consistent. Frankly, I’m terrified of it. Anyone who cared to test me would be doing so in the spirit of “outing” me, with the attitude that I was a crackpot… I don’t generally enjoy such circumstances.
If I did go forward in the interest of research, despite my personal reservations, then I know any mistake on my part would be magnified by the researchers and public to debunk me thanks to confirmation bias. In addition, I would expect to be faced with experiments devised in ignorance and so I’d be asked questions like “what are tomorrow’s lotto numbers?”
Frankly, under those conditions, I will fail. I am not that good. It’s a weaker sense that’s easily overwhelmed by the normal senses and by emotions, and I’m not that good. I couldn’t perform under pressure.
Even if I could, there would be very little upside: if I perform less than optimally, I’d be chided as an idiot or charlatan, and if I performed perfectly the experiments would be disregarded as flawed, and the subject matter silly. That’s all without mentioning the possible damage to my reputation… there’s not a lot of incentive.
Call us back when you win the JREF $1M.
Strangely, lots of folks replying to a year and a half old comment imported from OB.
There are a bunch of new users, and people keep getting told to “read the sequences”.
I saw the other responses and assumed the comment was new; I’ll check next time. Thanks.
Probably silly replying at this late date, but I’m going to do it anyway: Texas Holdem against strangers would be a much more compelling demonstration than RPS with your wife, and lucrative, too, if your powers are real. Surface thoughts should be sufficient to tell you when people are bluffing and when they genuinely have a strong hand, even if they don’t tell you exactly what cards they hold. Better yet, they should tell you when your opponents are confident enough to call your bluff, and when they’re not. That would give you a devastating advantage in the game. So I won’t hold my breath for your lottery wins, but if you genuinely have the abilities you describe I would expect to hear about your World Series of Poker bracelets.
Is your thought-reading ability equally effective against strangers, or people whose presence you’re aware of but who you can’t make eye contact with? If eye contact is required (or helpful), what about looking at the other person through a narrow opening, such as a mail slot, so that only their eyes are visible?
Could it be used to determine the presence or absence of a person on the opposite side of an opaque, soundproofed barrier?
In response to Ken saying a 90% win at Rock Paper Scissors is impossible, Rock Paper Scissors is not a very good test of the statistical significance of psychic powers. Rock Paper Scissors is something of a game of skill, especially when you are a playing against someone you know well that does not intentionally try to predict the other player’s thought process. Ken’s wife probably had something of a predictable pattern in that game—maybe she got bored, maybe she subconsciously played poorly to make Ken seem like more of a psychic.
http://www.worldrps.com/ It started as a joke, but it’s one of those jokes that became too serious for its own good. I would be very surprised if Ken could consistently beat any of the world’s top ranked RPS players.
It is much easier than you think to fool yourself about this sort of thing. Unless you’ve done a lot more experiments than the rock-paper-scissors one, and much more tightly controlled, you don’t have enough evidence to believe what you believe.
(Edit: grammar.)