I agree with your sentiment but respectfully disagree with the details. First, Yasser Arafat got a Nobel Peace Prize so the system is already an utter farce. And second, if it wasn’t an utter farce, you could make a good case for Petrov getting an honorable mention rather than the main prize, because there are people who’ve spent decades working hard for peace.
A non-farce award should base its judgment on results, not effort. A peace activist who spends his entire career digging and refilling a hole, for example, should not be anywhere near the Peace Prize shortlist. Despite the little time he spent, Petrov did more for world peace than many others who have been working longer—not that his decision was easy, anyway.
Maybe. It still comes at the cost of reduced emphasis (at the margin) by activists on thinking clearly about what results they’ll actually get—a kind of thinking definitely in short supply.
Like with FAI, world-changing activism is not a case where you want to play “A for effort”, as that tends to reward groups like Bolsheviks, who undoubtedly threw a lot of effort into a world peace strategy.
A non-farce award should base its judgment on results, not effort.
BTW, that appears to be how the Nobel Prize in Physics is achieved: for being shown to be right, with relatively little regard to how you came to be right.
This sounds like the Superhero Bias. Stanislav Petrov refrained from doing something and saved the world. This shows that he values the world more than a few seconds worth of working. If someone spends decades working hard on something that creates significantly less peace, then that shows that they value that smaller amount of peace to be worth decades worth of work. If they spend their career digging and refilling a hole, which they know very well does not cause peace, that shows nothing about how much they value peace.
So you would reward them for having deluded themselves into believing that the digging/reflling holes project would bring world peace? There’s no reward for making your beliefs conform to reality in this quest for peace?
And could you elaborate the connection to superhero bias? I’m just not seeing it.
I reward someone who works their whole life on the best cause they find. I don’t reward the guy who got lucky. I also won’t reward someone for being ridiculously stupid, but it’s not as if Petrov got into that situation by intelligence.
And could you elaborate the connection to superhero bias?
Who shows more heroism: someone who can annihilate bullets on contact giving some of his time to save 200 children, or someone who risks his life to save three prostitutes? Who shows more heroism: someone who risks their job to save the world, or someone who spends their entire career when they have an opportunity for a smaller amount of good?
I reward someone who works their whole life on the best cause they find. I don’t reward the guy who got lucky. I also won’t reward someone for being ridiculously stupid
Okay, but what makes you think that it was an easy decision in the first place? It sounds like hindsight bias, to act like, because we now know that it was a false alarm, it must have been obvious without the later knowledge. Also, disobeying orders with so much at stake requires significant courage.
And could you elaborate the connection to superhero bias?
Who shows more heroism: someone who can annihilate bullets on contact giving some of his time to save 200 children, or someone who risks his life to save three prostitutes? Who shows more heroism: someone who risks their job to save the world, or someone who spends their entire career when they have an opportunity for a smaller amount of good?
Right, I understand. I read the article. I was not asking for a summary, but for you to explain how that applies to the specific argument I made. Are you saying that Petrov had superhero level powers, and so his act was relatively trivial? Again, how does my claim here fit the superhero bias template?
It sounds like hindsight bias, to act like, because we now know that it was a false alarm, it must have been obvious without the later knowledge.
I guess his intelligence was involved somewhat. Also, I’m not sure why I thought that was all that relevant. I wouldn’t reward someone for doing something that they convinced themselves would save the world. That doesn’t really apply to Petrov.
Are you saying that Petrov had superhero level powers, and so his act was relatively trivial?
It was luck instead of powers, but basically. It wasn’t that he’s a superhero per se. It’s just the same sort of extreme version of the halo effect. He was in a situation where he could do extreme good at extremely low cost, which makes him seem really heroic without actually being very heroic at all.
I agree with your sentiment but respectfully disagree with the details. First, Yasser Arafat got a Nobel Peace Prize so the system is already an utter farce. And second, if it wasn’t an utter farce, you could make a good case for Petrov getting an honorable mention rather than the main prize, because there are people who’ve spent decades working hard for peace.
A non-farce award should base its judgment on results, not effort. A peace activist who spends his entire career digging and refilling a hole, for example, should not be anywhere near the Peace Prize shortlist. Despite the little time he spent, Petrov did more for world peace than many others who have been working longer—not that his decision was easy, anyway.
If prizes exist to incentivize people, there will be cases where you get superior effects from incentivizing effort rather than results.
Maybe. It still comes at the cost of reduced emphasis (at the margin) by activists on thinking clearly about what results they’ll actually get—a kind of thinking definitely in short supply.
Like with FAI, world-changing activism is not a case where you want to play “A for effort”, as that tends to reward groups like Bolsheviks, who undoubtedly threw a lot of effort into a world peace strategy.
BTW, that appears to be how the Nobel Prize in Physics is achieved: for being shown to be right, with relatively little regard to how you came to be right.
This sounds like the Superhero Bias. Stanislav Petrov refrained from doing something and saved the world. This shows that he values the world more than a few seconds worth of working. If someone spends decades working hard on something that creates significantly less peace, then that shows that they value that smaller amount of peace to be worth decades worth of work. If they spend their career digging and refilling a hole, which they know very well does not cause peace, that shows nothing about how much they value peace.
So you would reward them for having deluded themselves into believing that the digging/reflling holes project would bring world peace? There’s no reward for making your beliefs conform to reality in this quest for peace?
And could you elaborate the connection to superhero bias? I’m just not seeing it.
I reward someone who works their whole life on the best cause they find. I don’t reward the guy who got lucky. I also won’t reward someone for being ridiculously stupid, but it’s not as if Petrov got into that situation by intelligence.
Who shows more heroism: someone who can annihilate bullets on contact giving some of his time to save 200 children, or someone who risks his life to save three prostitutes? Who shows more heroism: someone who risks their job to save the world, or someone who spends their entire career when they have an opportunity for a smaller amount of good?
Okay, but what makes you think that it was an easy decision in the first place? It sounds like hindsight bias, to act like, because we now know that it was a false alarm, it must have been obvious without the later knowledge. Also, disobeying orders with so much at stake requires significant courage.
Right, I understand. I read the article. I was not asking for a summary, but for you to explain how that applies to the specific argument I made. Are you saying that Petrov had superhero level powers, and so his act was relatively trivial? Again, how does my claim here fit the superhero bias template?
I guess his intelligence was involved somewhat. Also, I’m not sure why I thought that was all that relevant. I wouldn’t reward someone for doing something that they convinced themselves would save the world. That doesn’t really apply to Petrov.
It was luck instead of powers, but basically. It wasn’t that he’s a superhero per se. It’s just the same sort of extreme version of the halo effect. He was in a situation where he could do extreme good at extremely low cost, which makes him seem really heroic without actually being very heroic at all.
We should encourage people to be more lucky, especially as much ‘luck’ is simply skill that the uninitiated aren’t capable of observing.