This is difficult for people with no ML background. The trouble with this is that one first has to explain timelines. Then explain what averages and ranges most researchers in the field maintain, and then explain why some discount that in favor of short AI timelines. That is a long arc for a skeptical person.
Aren’t we all skeptical people? Carl Sagan said that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Explaining a short timeline is a heavy lift by its very nature.
This is difficult for people with no ML background. The trouble with this is that one first has to explain timelines. Then explain what averages and ranges most researchers in the field maintain, and then explain why some discount that in favor of short AI timelines. That is a long arc for a skeptical person.
Aren’t we all skeptical people? Carl Sagan said that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Explaining a short timeline is a heavy lift by its very nature.