Interesting idea. I think one thing you have to do, though, is to be very systematic in your choice of which past predictions that you study. Otherwise there is a risk you end up focusing on those who were right, or those who were spectacularly wrong, etc.
I guess in general it is easier to predict technological progress than its impact on society, and of course generally easier to predict incremental changes of existing technologies than qualitative shifts.
A major problem is, I guess, inventions, or aspects of inventions, that people have a hard time even conceiving of at present.
Meteorologists are quite good at predicting the weather in the near future with some accuracy but far worse when you move ten days ahead. Similarly the further you go into the future the harder it obviously becomes to predict. That said, general trends can be predicted both weather- and climate-wise though exact dates cannot be given.
Interesting idea. I think one thing you have to do, though, is to be very systematic in your choice of which past predictions that you study. Otherwise there is a risk you end up focusing on those who were right, or those who were spectacularly wrong, etc.
I guess in general it is easier to predict technological progress than its impact on society, and of course generally easier to predict incremental changes of existing technologies than qualitative shifts.
A major problem is, I guess, inventions, or aspects of inventions, that people have a hard time even conceiving of at present.
Meteorologists are quite good at predicting the weather in the near future with some accuracy but far worse when you move ten days ahead. Similarly the further you go into the future the harder it obviously becomes to predict. That said, general trends can be predicted both weather- and climate-wise though exact dates cannot be given.