Thanks! Those papers are new to me; I’ll have a look.
I’m willing to make bets against AI Winter before TAI, if anyone has a specific bet to propose...
I just want to call attention to the fact that my operationalisation (“a drawdown in annual global AI investment of ≥50%”) is pretty inclusive (maybe too much so). I can imagine some scenarios where this happens and then we get TAI within 5 years after that anyway, or where this happens but it doesn’t really look like a winter.
(Partly I did this to be more “charitable” to Eden—to say, “AI winter seems pretty unlikely even on these pretty conservative assumptions”, but I should probably have flagged the fact that “≥50% drawdown” is more inclusive than “winter” more clearly.)
Thanks! Those papers are new to me; I’ll have a look.
I just want to call attention to the fact that my operationalisation (“a drawdown in annual global AI investment of ≥50%”) is pretty inclusive (maybe too much so). I can imagine some scenarios where this happens and then we get TAI within 5 years after that anyway, or where this happens but it doesn’t really look like a winter.
(Partly I did this to be more “charitable” to Eden—to say, “AI winter seems pretty unlikely even on these pretty conservative assumptions”, but I should probably have flagged the fact that “≥50% drawdown” is more inclusive than “winter” more clearly.)
Yeah, your steelman seems pretty reasonable to me actually. My comment was more a reaction to Eden’s original stance. Bonus content… Here’s a related pithy tidbit: https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxGJnic8Q7W59Vo1C4TdnwIugx5FaqDpN_