Big thanks to Amanda, Owain, and others at Ought for their work on this!
My overall forecast is pretty low confidence — particularly with respect to the time parameter.
Snapshot is here: https://elicit.ought.org/builder/uIF9O5fIp (Please ignore any other snapshots in my name, which were submitted in error)
My calculations are in this spreadsheet
Big thanks to Amanda, Owain, and others at Ought for their work on this!
My overall forecast is pretty low confidence — particularly with respect to the time parameter.
Snapshot is here: https://elicit.ought.org/builder/uIF9O5fIp (Please ignore any other snapshots in my name, which were submitted in error)
My calculations are in this spreadsheet