I should say that I’d give very little weight to both my forecast and my reasoning. Reasons for that include that:
I’m not an experienced forecaster
I don’t have deep knowledge on relevant specifics (e.g., AI paradigms, state-of-the-art in biotech)
I didn’t spend a huge amount of time on my forecast, and used pretty quick-and-dirty methods
I drew on existing forecasts to some extent (in particular, the LessWrong Elicit AI timelines thread and Ord’s x-risk estimates). So if you updated on those forecasts and then also updated on my forecast as if it was independent of them, you’d be double-counting some views and evidence
So I’m mostly just very excited to see other people’s forecasts, and even more excited to see how they reason about and break down the question!
Thanks for making this thread!
I should say that I’d give very little weight to both my forecast and my reasoning. Reasons for that include that:
I’m not an experienced forecaster
I don’t have deep knowledge on relevant specifics (e.g., AI paradigms, state-of-the-art in biotech)
I didn’t spend a huge amount of time on my forecast, and used pretty quick-and-dirty methods
I drew on existing forecasts to some extent (in particular, the LessWrong Elicit AI timelines thread and Ord’s x-risk estimates). So if you updated on those forecasts and then also updated on my forecast as if it was independent of them, you’d be double-counting some views and evidence
So I’m mostly just very excited to see other people’s forecasts, and even more excited to see how they reason about and break down the question!