Very interesting, thanks for sharing! This seems like a nice example of combining various existing predictions to answer a new question.
a forecast for existential risk (100% dead)
It seems worth highlighting that extinction risk (risk of 100% dead) is a (big) subset of existential risk (risk of permanent and drastic destruction of humanity’s potential), rather than those two terms being synonymous. If your forecast was for extinction risk only, then the total existential risk should presumably be at least slightly higher, due to risks of unrecoverable collapse or unrecoverable dystopia.
(I think it’s totally ok and very useful to “just” forecast extinction risk. I just think it’s also good to be clear about what one’s forecast is of.)
Good points. Unfortunately it seems even harder to infer “destruction of potential” from the Metaculus forecasts. It seems plausible that AI could cause destruction of potential without any deaths at all, and so this wouldn’t be covered by the Metaculus series.
I also think it’s easier to forecast extinction in general, partly because it’s a much clearer threshold, whereas there are some scenarios that some people might count as an “existential catastrophe” and others might not. (E.g., Bostrom’s “plateauing — progress flattens out at a level perhaps somewhat higher than the present level but far below technological maturity”.)
Very interesting, thanks for sharing! This seems like a nice example of combining various existing predictions to answer a new question.
It seems worth highlighting that extinction risk (risk of 100% dead) is a (big) subset of existential risk (risk of permanent and drastic destruction of humanity’s potential), rather than those two terms being synonymous. If your forecast was for extinction risk only, then the total existential risk should presumably be at least slightly higher, due to risks of unrecoverable collapse or unrecoverable dystopia.
(I think it’s totally ok and very useful to “just” forecast extinction risk. I just think it’s also good to be clear about what one’s forecast is of.)
Good points. Unfortunately it seems even harder to infer “destruction of potential” from the Metaculus forecasts. It seems plausible that AI could cause destruction of potential without any deaths at all, and so this wouldn’t be covered by the Metaculus series.
Yeah, totally agreed.
I also think it’s easier to forecast extinction in general, partly because it’s a much clearer threshold, whereas there are some scenarios that some people might count as an “existential catastrophe” and others might not. (E.g., Bostrom’s “plateauing — progress flattens out at a level perhaps somewhat higher than the present level but far below technological maturity”.)